[2008.07.19] 奥巴马的造势之行：欢迎到访，总统竞选者先生

Barack Obama on tour
奥巴马的造势之行

Welcome, Mr would-be President
欢迎到访，总统竞选者先生

Jul 17th 2008
From The Economist print edition

But foreigners would be wise to temper their Obamamania, if only to limit future disappointment
戒慎追”马”热，宜静为后观

IF THE business of electing the most powerful man in the world were up to the world, rather than just those pesky Americans, Barack Obama would face no contest. A poll for the Guardian this week, on the eve of Mr Obama’s whirlwind tour of Europe and the Middle East (half a dozen countries in a week, some for the first time in his life), shows that Britons would back him against John McCain by the astonishing margin of five to one. The Pew Research Centre reported last month that, in each of the main European countries, at least twice as many people have confidence in Mr Obama as in his rival. Elsewhere things are a bit more nuanced, but from Mexico to China, and from Russia to Australia, the foreigners are firmly in the Obama camp.

如果世界最高权力者的选举活动由全球共同参与，而不仅仅是那些恼人的老美，巴拉克•奥巴马大概就无需竞选了。本周，在他前往欧洲和中东开启旋风之旅（一周之内走访6个国家，有些还是他有生以来的首次造访）的前夕，《卫报》所做的一项民调显示，在英国，欲挺奥巴马的人数相对支持麦克恩的人数比例惊人，悬殊高达5：1。皮尤研究中心上个月的报告称，在各个欧洲大国，对奥巴马怀有信心的民众超过麦凯恩拥趸人数的至少一倍。在其他地区，差别略显微妙，但从墨西哥到中国，从俄罗斯到澳大利亚，外国人都坚定地站到了奥巴马阵营。

There are reasons for them to be more cautious. Marvellous orator and skilled electoral tactician though he may be, Mr Obama has not repealed the basic laws of politics. Most obviously, he may not win. Rasmussen, a pollster, rattled the Obama machine this week by showing the two candidates tied, and most other analysts agree that the bounce he enjoyed after seeing off Hillary Clinton has been small and short-lived. Mr Obama still definitely has the edge, but opinion at home diverges sharply from that in most of the rest of the world.

这些人要更加谨慎，原因有三。首先，尽管奥巴马是演说奇才，滔滔雄辩，而且善打选战，谋略一流，但政治上的基本法则并未因此就停摆。显而易见的是，他未必能赢。民调机构拉斯穆森(Rasmussen)本周发布的数据显示，两位候选人的民意支持度持平，这让奥巴马的竞选团队焦虑不安。而多数其他的分析人士也都意见一致，认为奥巴马在送别希拉里后获得的支持率反弹空间狭小，为时短暂。奥巴马仍握有相当的优势，但国内民意与世界其它大部分地区的舆论分歧甚巨。

Second, President Obama would not be answerable to the world that so adores him. A president is elected by America’s more ambivalent people, and is accountable only to them. And his powers are mightily constrained by Congress, which is even more immediately accountable to its electorate.

其二，当选后的奥巴马不会向这个对他爱宠有加的世界履职尽责。总统是由情绪矛盾的美利坚民族选出的，因此只对这些人负责。而且，总统职权受到国会的有力制约，而国会甚至更加直接地对选民负责。

Finally, there are some disquieting signs of a tendency on Mr Obama’s part to tailor his message to whichever audience he is talking to. All politicians do this of course. But Mr Obama’s two-steps have become Astaire-like. For instance, in his primary battle with Mrs Clinton, Mr Obama laid out a timetable for a virtually complete withdrawal from Iraq within 16 months of taking office, specifying a rate of one to two brigades a month. Since starting to campaign in the general election, he has fudged this clear line: he committed to withdrawal again this week (see article), but he has also been careful to give himself wriggle-room on its pace. Similarly, he once talked of negotiating with the Iranian leadership without preconditions: now he talks of the need for “preparations”.

第三，有些令人不安的迹象表明，奥巴马越来越趋向于对任何观众都传递应时变化的信息。当然，所有的政治人物都这么做。但奥巴马的两步舞跳得神乎其技，仿若弗雷德•阿斯泰尔（20世纪最伟大的舞者之一–译者注）。譬如，在与希拉里的预选战中，奥巴马列出了时间表，称将在就职后的16个月内从伊拉克完全撤军，规定每个月撤1到2个旅。自从角力大选以来，他就不断篡变立场：本周，他再度强调自己致力于撤军行动，但也小心翼翼地在撤军速度上留下予己回还的空间。与此类似，他也曾表示在不设前提的条件下与伊朗领导层展开协商，但如今却改口称需设”前提”。

Both these alterations make sense, but many Europeans won’t like them. Other bits of pandering could be more costly. Mr Obama recently told the main pro-Israel group in Washington that Jerusalem must never be divided, a position that goes beyond those of the Clinton and Bush administrations (not to mention that of many Israelis). Then he backtracked.

这两项变化可以理解，但许多欧洲人并不乐于接受。其它迎合民意的做法代价可能更高。奥巴马近来告知华盛顿亲以色列的主要团体，称决不可分隔耶路撒冷，这一立场相比了克林顿政府和布什政府的官员（更别提许多以色列人）走得更远。而后，他又有所退缩。

Doffing the cap
你好，国会

On trade, Mr Obama used to demand the renegotiation of NAFTA; now he stresses his dedication to the cause of free trade. A welcome adjustment, but he is almost certain, if elected, to have a heavily Democratic Congress which is liable to send him protectionist legislation he may find it hard to veto. On climate change he, like Mr McCain, favours a cap-and-trade system. But the Democrat-controlled Congress recently failed to agree even on a watered-down version of such a plan, without any need for a veto from George Bush.

在贸易方面，奥巴马曾要求重新商议北美自由贸易协定；而如今，他则强调自己对此进程的贡献。这一调整值得欢迎，但他若当选，几乎必定会面对一个民主党占据主导的国会。这个国会多半会行送贸易保护法条，而他可能觉得难以下手否决。在气候变化议题上，他和麦凯恩一样，都支持排放上限和贸易制度。但是最近，民主党掌控的国会甚至未能就这样一项打了折扣的制度方案达成共识，（在这种情况下，）布什的否决毫无必要。

On all these fronts, in fact, there are doubts: doubts as to just what Mr Obama’s positions as president would actually be, and doubts over what he could get through Congress. Those doubts will not stop the crowds turning out for him, even if he fails to commandeer the Brandenburg Gate as his backdrop. But the fans should bear in mind that what they see is not precisely what they will get.

事实上，选民对所有这些议题都心存疑虑：奥巴马登上大位后的真实立场会是怎样；还有，他能让国会通过什么议案。这些疑虑不会阻止民众出门投票，即使他未能”征用”勃兰登堡门作为自己的演说台。不过，追捧者应当记住，今日之所见未必是明朝之所得。

译者： 零下1℃　http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=12755&extra=page%3D1