[2008.07.12] 地中海经济：地中海俱乐部

The Mediterranean economy
地中海经济

Club Med
地中海俱乐部

Jul 10th 2008
From The Economist print edition

The Mediterranean, north and south, is forming a single economic unit: Europe should make it a powerful one
地中海南北两端正在形成一个独立的经济联合体,欧洲应该将其做大

UNDER imperial Rome, the roads in cold, wet Britannia were no straighter than those in sweltering north Africa. The same sestertius could buy a lampful of oil. Across the southern Mediterranean and northern Europe alike, Latin was the lingua franca-1,500 years before anyone had coined the term. Under the Treaty of Rome, however, the European Union has behaved as if the Med were a frontier, rather than an organising principle. As often as not, it has turned its back on the crescent that stretches from Morocco to Turkey, as a cradle of instability and terrorism. Sometimes the southern Med’s main export has seemed to be boatloads of illegal immigrants.

在罗马帝国,湿冷的大不列颠和溽热的北非有同样笔直的道路.相同数量的货币可以购买到相同数的油.从地中海南端到北欧,拉丁语畅通无阻-1500年以前任何人都处在大一统之下.然而现在罗马条约却表明,欧盟将地中海地区仅仅视为前哨,而不是组织良好的重镇.大多数时候,它不与从摩洛哥延伸至土耳其的伊斯兰国家接触,把它们不稳定因素和恐怖主义的摇篮.有时些地中海南端的主要出口品看起来是一船又一船的非法移民.

This weekend at a summit in Paris France’s president, Nicolas Sarkozy, wants to heal the rift. Some 40 heads of state and government from the EU and the southern and eastern Mediterranean will meet to create a new club, called the Union for the Mediterranean. Despite Mr Sarkozy’s bombast, Club Med will have a modest start: the French propose a secretariat, which they will jointly head with Egypt, and money to help finance ventures on solar energy, anti-terrorism and the inevitable cultural exchanges.

本周将要在在巴黎举行的峰会上,法国总统尼古拉斯萨科奇希望修复这一裂痕.大约有40余名来自欧盟和地中海南端与东端的国家与政府首脑希望建立一个新的俱乐部,即地中海联盟.尽管萨科奇夸下海口,但地中海联盟恐怕只会有一个平淡的开始:法国提议与埃及联合设立秘书处,并且许诺向该联盟在太阳能,反恐行动和大势所趋的文化交流方面提供资金援助.

Beyond the platitudes and projects lies the germ of a brilliant idea. Something is stirring around the Med as globalisation takes root. Growth and investment have leapt. There is a new openness to trade and foreign money. The members of Club Med no longer need to glower across the table at each other. Instead, there is the prospect of the youth and vigour of the southern Mediterranean combining with a rich, ageing north. Despite the recent surge, the southern Med still takes less than 10% of all the FDI from the EU. This offers a tantalising prospect-though one reason why Club Med matters is that it is fraught with dangers.

这一绝妙的设想不仅仅是一些陈词滥调和几项工程.在全球化的过程中,一些事物也在刺激着环地中海地区.经济增长和投资力度激增.对贸易和国外投资的态度日渐开放.联盟成员国不再需要像以前那样在谈判桌上怒目而视.相反,年轻充满活力的地中海南端与富裕老迈的北端联合起来有着光明的前途.但是,尽管近些年来情况大大改善,欧盟的投资在地中海南部国家全部外国直接投资中所占比例仍然不足10%.这一点让欧洲感到支持地中海联盟迫在眉睫-当然另外还有一个重要原因,那就是它现在危险重重.

Dido’s cement
巩固联系

The EU has looked south before, in an initiative called the Barcelona Process, which dates back 13 years and failed to live up to its promises. Hopes are higher today, however, because the politicians gathering in Paris are following a path that is increasingly well trodden by business (see article). FDI in the countries along the Mediterranean shore, from Morocco to Turkey, has grown six times since the turn of the century, to $59 billion in 2006-ahead of Latin America’s Mercosur ($25 billion) and not far short of China ($69 billion). At the same time, the growth in the region’s GDP is running at 4.4% a year-slow by China’s standards, admittedly, but it has been accelerating as Europe has slowed.

欧盟也曾经关注过南方,13年前它们启动了巴塞罗那进程,但最终没有达到目标.然而,现如今人们的希望更高,因为齐聚巴黎的政治家们都走重商的道路.地中海延岸国家的外国直接投资比世纪之交时上涨了6倍,达到了2006年的590亿美元-领先于拉丁美洲南方共同市场的250亿美元,并且紧紧追赶中国的 690亿美元.与此同时,这一地区的GDP年均增长4.4%-虽然按照中国的标准来说仍然很慢,但在欧洲增长放缓之际这一地区实现加速实属不易.

Although Turkey, Israel and Egypt still dominate, most of the region has shared in this prosperity. Oil and gas are partly to thank, but investment is spread among financial services, telecoms, retailing and construction. Look at the car factory Renault and Nissan are planning in Morocco. Or the new container port outside Tangiers that will soon be bigger than Long Beach, on America’s west coast. Much of the money comes from Europe, as did the 8.8 billion ($12.9 billion) France’s Lafarge invested in Egyptian cement. But Americans are making aerospace parts; Arabs are spending petrodollars on property and construction; Brazilians are investing in fertilisers and textiles; Indians in IT and pharmaceuticals.

虽然当下发展是以土耳其,以色列和埃及为主导,但该地区大部分国家都共享这一繁荣.这部分原因要归功于油价上涨,但在金融服务,电信,零售业和建筑业等方面投资力度不断加大也功不可没.雷诺和尼桑计划在摩洛哥建厂.丹吉尔外的货柜港口的规模很快就要超过美国西岸的长滩.欧洲也投入大量资金,例如,法国拉法基公司在埃及水泥业投资了88亿欧元(折合129亿美元).另外,在地中海地区,美国投资航天工业,阿拉伯世界在不动产和房地产方面投入大量石油美元,巴西投资肥料和纺织业,印度投资IT和制药业.

There is strength in such diversity, and there needs to be. The resurgent Med has a lot still to overcome. With exceptions, notably Israel, the region is plagued by poor infrastructure, an ill-educated workforce and unemployment. Unlike eastern Europe, which built trading links under communism, the Med countries barely trade with each other, so they lose the benefits of specialisation. And then there is the politics. The Europeans are right to look askance at the looming crisis of succession in Egypt, beleaguered Israel, unborn Palestine, divided Lebanon, fundamentalist Islam in Morocco, bombs in Algeria, Muammar Qaddafi’s bizarre Libyan autocracy, the risk that the Turkish courts declare the ruling party unconstitutional. That unfinished list is already depressingly long.

多样性自有其力量,地中海地区也需要多样性.但这一地区要想复兴仍然有诸多困难需要克服.除了以色列这一明显的个别例外,这一地区仍然受到多方面困扰,比如说基础设施不建全,劳动力受教育程度不高,失业率高.不像在共产主义制度下就有贸易联系的东欧,地中海国家彼此之间很少相互贸易,它们也因此丧失了专业化的利益.除了经济方面,还有政治原因.欧洲人关注地中海国家的种种政治问题绝对有其道理.埃及即将面临继任危机,以色列饱受批评,巴勒斯坦迟迟不能建国,黎巴嫩四分五裂,摩洛哥有伊斯兰原教旨主义者,阿尔及利亚有炸弹, 穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲在利比亚实施独裁统治,土耳其法院有可能宣布其统治党违宪.这位未完的清单已经令人郁闷地长.

The EU is not free of troubles either. Those who favour Turkey’s membership of the EU fear that Club Med is designed to fob it off with second-class citizenship. At first Mr Sarkozy schemed to include only the EU countries with a Mediterranean coast-a ploy to create a French-dominated counterbalance to the apparently German-dominated east. After a vicious row with Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, Mr Sarkozy agreed to include the entire EU. That was right, if only because Germany pays much of the EU’s bills.

欧盟也是麻烦不断.那些希望土耳其加入欧盟的人害怕地中海联盟是用来给搪塞土耳其,让它安于当二等公民的组织.最初,萨科奇希望欧盟以地中海为界-以此来形成法国主导的地域从而制衡德国主导的东部地区.在同德国首相默克尔大吵一架以后,萨科奇最终同意欧盟覆盖整个欧洲.只要德国为欧盟大部分开销埋单,这一点就是正确的.

Sunday’s summit matters, because it is a step towards healing such wounds-and because it sets the tone. Will the Mediterranean union seize the moment, or will it be strangled by southern politics and European squabbles?

周日的峰会至关重要,不仅仅因为它迈出了解决诸多问题的重要一步-也因为它为将来的发展定下了调子. 地中海联盟是把握住机遇伺机壮大,还是最终被南方政治困局和欧洲争端扼杀在摇篮里?

Mare nostrums
内海

The first test is whether Mr Sarkozy is willing to see Club Med as more than a scheme to burnish French glory. If he wants the new union to thrive, he will have to accept that it is for everyone’s benefit, and let business do its work. This means a free-trade area that opens the EU to goods and services from the south-including the farm produce that France is making a fuss over in the world trade talks.

第一个考验是萨科奇是否愿意看到地中海联盟不仅仅被用来照亮法国荣耀.如果他希望新的联盟发展壮大起来,他就必须承认这一点:为每个人的利益着想,必须让市场发挥其主导作用.这意味着欧盟将有一片自由贸易区域可以接受来自南方的商品和服务-其中包括法国在世界贸易谈判当中小题大做的农产品.

The second is for the EU to use its patronage to boost spending on infrastructure, promote trade in the region and clean up politics. One lesson from eastern Europe is that, with incentives, countries will start to sort themselves out. For the Mediterranean, those incentives should include access to funds and markets. The logic of enlargement is that it could even include the faint possibility of membership of the EU itself (if the union were to admit non-Europeans). But none of that will count for much unless the southern Med chooses prosperity.

对欧盟的第二个考验是它必须对南方国家加以资助,加大的基础设施建设方面的投入,刺激区域经济,解决政治争端. 从东欧经验可以得知,只要有激励因素,各国就能够开始独立解决自身问题.对于地中海区域而言,能够获得资金和市场就是它们的激励因素.这一联盟扩张到一定程度,甚至有可能将欧盟也吸纳为其成员之一(如果联盟允许非欧洲国家进入的话).但除非地中海南端也繁荣起来,否则所有这些都没什么意义.

The world sometimes writes off Europe as the old continent, well past the vigour of youth and doomed to gentle decline; at the same time it condemns many of the teeming economies of the southern Med as chaotic backwaters. Old and young can make a powerful combination. The creation of the Union for the Mediterranean is hardly the rebirth of imperial Rome, but it may just be the start of something exciting.

世界往往将欧洲视为失落的大陆,失去了新兴国家所拥有的活力,注定会缓慢的走向衰落.与此同时它又将南地中海诸多经济体视为一团混沌的死水.一老一新联合起来,将会焕发出新活力.地中海联盟的成立虽然还说不上是罗马帝国的复兴,但可以被看作一个激动人心的开始.

译者： xsj191   http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=12647&extra=page%3D1