[2008.06.28] 以色列和伊朗:比想象中要晚

Israel and Iran
以色列和伊朗

It’s later than you think
比想象中要晚

Jun 26th 2008
From The Economist print edition

Israel is threatening to attack Iran’s nuclear sites. This may not be a bluff
以色列威胁袭击伊朗的核设施，这绝不是虚张声势

WITH oil prices at their present highs and Iraq at last making tentative progress towards stability, the last thing anyone wants to hear is that conditions in the Middle East could be about to take an abrupt turn for the worse. Unfortunately, they could. Recent weeks have brought a spike in chatter about the prospect of an Israeli military strike on Iran’s nuclear installations. Israel has conducted ostentatious long-range air exercises over the Mediterranean, and one former chief of staff has called an attack inevitable if Iran continues its nuclear work. This noise might be just a bluff designed to signal to Iran that it would be wise to stop enriching uranium, as the United Nations Security Council ordered it to a full two years ago. Then again, it might not.

目前石油价格处于高位运行，加之伊拉克似乎迈上了平稳之路，现在人们最不愿看到的莫过于中东局势再次急转直下。不幸的是这种可能性依旧存在。最近几周来，关于以色列军队将对伊朗核设施进行打击的传闻甚嚣尘上。日前以色列还进行了一场声势浩大的跨地中海的长途空军演习。以色列一位前参谋长指出如果伊朗继续进行核计划，那么以色列将无可避免对其进行打击。这种叫嚣可能试图示意伊朗既然联合国安理会早在两年前就勒令其停止发展核武器，伊朗还是停止浓缩铀为妙。不过这仍旧是老调重弹，伊朗可能不会就此屈服。

Until recently, fears of an Israeli or American attack on Iran had been receding. The prospect of an American strike diminished after America’s intelligence services published their inconvenient finding last December that Iran had stopped trying to design a nuclear weapon in 2003. At the same time, diplomats have been able to point to the sort of progress diplomats point to: a series of Security Council resolutions, supported by Russia and China as well as the West, telling Iran to stop its uranium-enriching centrifuges. Sanctions have been applied as well: in the latest, the European Union decided this week to freeze the assets of Iran’s biggest bank, Bank Melli.

直到最近，人们对美国和以色列袭击伊朗的担忧才渐渐退去。去年12月份美国情报机构不合时宜地公布了一份调查结果，该结果显示伊朗自2003年就已经停止设计核武器。自那以来，美国袭击伊朗的可能性日渐式微，与此同时，许多外交人员也指出了一些他们所希望看到的进展：在俄罗斯，中国，还有西方的支持下，安理会颁布一系列决议，勒令伊朗关闭离心机。同时还对伊朗进行了诸多制裁：最近，欧盟决定在本周内冻结伊朗最大的银行–梅里银行的资产。

Slowly but surely, you might conclude, the normal tools of diplomacy are being brought to bear, removing the need for anything worse. Besides, in November Americans may elect Barack Obama as president. Doesn’t he promise to sort out Iran by means of direct talks at the highest level, a necessary step that George Bush could never quite bring himself to take?

尽管进程缓慢但毋庸置疑，我们可以得出此种结论–正常的外交手段正在逐步见效，因此无需再做更坏的打算。此外，美国有可能在十一月选举奥巴马为总统。难道他没有承诺通过最高层领导人的直接对话来解决伊朗问题？ 而这步棋布什从未考虑。

If those were your reasons for ceasing to worry, think again. Despite that American intelligence finding, neither Israel nor many other governments believe that Iran has given up its interest in nuclear weapons. Yes, the UN has passed resolutions and imposed some mild sanctions, but Iran has spent two years disregarding them,
continuing to spin its centrifuges and to call for the destruction of Israel. It may well be true that Mr Bush is disinclined to bomb Iran now that he is a lame duck, but the possible advent of a President Obama might just make Israel more inclined to do so itself. As the hawkish John Bolton, a former Bush administration official, said this week, Israel may think the best time to attack would be during America’s presidential transition-too late to be accused of influencing the election and before needing a new president’s green light.

如果仅凭上述理由便高枕无忧，那么请再三思考。尽管有美国情报机构的调查结果在前，但要说伊朗放弃发展核计划，以色列不信，其他许多政府也满腹怀疑。诚然，联合国通过了数项决议，采取了许多温和的制裁，但是伊朗在过去的两年里对此置若罔闻，嗤之以鼻，在浓缩铀的道路上越走越远，并号召消灭以色列。很可能布什也不愿继续支持轰炸伊朗，由于他自己也成了一只跛脚鸭。但是由于奥巴马可能担任下任总统，使得以色列更加愿意单打独斗。正如本周前布什政府机构鹰派人物约翰博尔顿指出，以色列进攻伊朗的最佳时机莫过于美国大选的空挡–既不会影响大选，招致指责，又可以赶在新总统的首肯之前。

Don’t do it
放下屠刀

Such an attack would be a mistake. Even if it did not turn the region into a “fireball”, as Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the world’s nuclear watchdog, has predicted, it would certainly provoke retaliation. Given Iran’s size and sophistication, it would at best delay rather than end whatever plans the Iranians have to become a nuclear military power.

如此进攻将铸成大错。即使不像世界核武器监测机构IAEA主席穆罕默德阿伯雷德所指出的那样，以色列的袭击将会使该地区弥漫着硝烟战火，但以色列此举肯定会招致报复行为。考虑到伊朗的国力和成熟的技术，对于任何发展伊朗成为核武器国家的计划，伊朗最多延迟，而不会将其搁置。

Even if Iran did get the bomb, it would probably not use it for fear of Israel’s bigger, existing stockpile. And in the (admittedly improbable) event that Iran is telling the truth when it denies having any such ambition, nothing would change its mind faster than an Israeli strike. The trouble is, this logic looks different from Tel Aviv. Given their history, a lot of Israelis will run almost any risk to prevent a state that calls repeatedly for their own state’s destruction from acquiring the wherewithal to bring that end about. Till now, the world has talked a lot and applied some modest sanctions to stop Iran’s dash to enrich uranium. It is time to apply much tougher ones, in the hope that it is not already too late.

即便伊朗研制出了核武器，以色列的库存也要略胜一筹，但是伊朗不会因此投鼠忌器。如果伊朗宣称没有任何野心所言属实的话（事实上不大可能），以色列的袭击将使伊朗最短时间内改变主意。问题是特拉维夫的看法大相径庭。鉴于历史因素，对于一个反复叫嚣消灭自己祖国的国家，以色列人愿意不惜一切代价来阻止该国获得所需的资金和技术，挫败其阴谋。直到现在，世界早已就此喋喋不休争论许久，也付诸了一些温和的制裁来止住伊朗在浓缩铀道路上疾行的脚步，现在是时候采取更强硬的措施了，希望亡羊补牢，尤为太迟。

译者：vincent1986   http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=12436&extra=page%3D1