Zimbabwe
津巴布韦
How to get him out
如何赶走他
Jun 26th 2008
From The Economist print edition
By forcing the opposition to abandon the election, Robert Mugabe has undermined his position
由于强迫对手放弃选举，罗伯特·穆加贝的地位已经动摇了
IT IS hard to believe that the horrors inflicted by Zimbabwe’s ruler on his own people could get worse. But even in the past week they have. The burning to death of a six-year-old boy because his father is an opposition politician, and the butchering of the young wife of the capital’s new opposition mayor, are part of a growing wave of violence that has persuaded Morgan Tsvangirai, the opposition leader, to withdraw from the presidential run-off that was due on June 27th. He rightly felt that, by standing in the election, he was risking the lives of too many thousands of his supporters.
很难相信津巴布韦统治者会给他的人民带来更大的恐惧，但是在上周，这确实发生了。1个6岁的男孩被烧死，因为他的父亲是一名反对党的政治家；一名年轻的妇女被杀害，因为他的丈夫，同时也是首都的新任市长，是一名反对党党员。这些都是不断增长的暴力浪潮的一部分。这也促使反对党领袖摩根·茨万吉拉伊放弃原定于6月27日举行的最后一轮总统选举。他完全有理由相信，因为参加选举，他的数千名支持者正面临着生命危险。
Yet Robert Mugabe’s crimes are finally coming home to roost. He will claim to be re-elected president, by default. But he has lost one of the big things that have kept him in power to date: the grudging support of Africa. His brutality and fraudulence have become so plain for all to see that neighbours who once defended him are changing their tune. Just as he is poised to declare himself the winner, almost the entire continent-not to mention the rest of the world-has come to believe that he cannot be allowed to stay in office (see article).
然而罗伯特·穆加贝终究会恶贯满盈。由于没有竞争者，他会再次当选总统。但是他将失去迄今为止让他拥有权力的最大助力：非洲国家的勉力支持。他的野蛮和欺诈已经清楚的表露出来，使得那些曾经支持他的邻国改变了态度。就当他准备宣布自己是胜利者的时候，几乎整个非洲大陆，更不用说世界上的其它国家，都已经达成共识，决不允许他掌权。
He is, as a result, weaker; but he and his thugs are determined to hang on. He has the tyrant’s delusion that “only God”, as he puts it, can displace him. So Western and African countries, especially Zimbabwe’s neighbours, must act in concert to get rid of the ogre that has shamed an entire continent.
因此，他更软弱了；但是他和他的手下决定坚持下去。正如他所声称的那样，他有着暴君一样的妄想，”只有上帝”能取代他。所以西方国家和非洲国家，特别是津巴布韦的邻国，必须团结起来，一起铲除这个使整个大陆蒙羞的魔鬼。
How to finish him off
如何将他赶下台
The first and easiest act is to refuse to recognise any administration led by Mr Mugabe. The European Union, the United States and much of the rich world will ostracise him. Now is the time for Africa, especially the influential regional club of 14 countries known as the Southern African Development Community (SADC), to follow suit. A swelling chorus of other African leaders has condemned the election as unfair. Even South Africa, whose spineless president, Thabo Mbeki, is still refusing to criticise Mr Mugabe outright, has begun to turn against him. Its likely next president, Jacob Zuma, is increasingly exasperated. Its trade unions have called for a blockade of Zimbabwe, symbolic at first but perhaps a harbinger of pressure to come. Nelson Mandela, South Africa’s beacon of decency, in London this week to celebrate his 90th birthday, spoke out against the “tragic failure of leadership in our neighbouring Zimbabwe”.
首先要做的，就是拒绝承认任何一个由穆加贝先生领导的政府，这也是最容易做到的。欧盟、美国和其它的一些发达国家将会排斥他。非洲国家已经到了统一立场的时候了，特别是”南非共同体”（SADC）这个由14个国家组成的具有影响力的区域性组织必须统一思想。已经有越来越多的非洲领导人谴责选举不公正。甚至连南非都开始反对他了，南非总统塔博·姆贝基是个软弱的家伙，他一直拒绝直率的批评穆加贝先生。最有希望当选南非下任总统的雅各布·祖玛对此越来越愤怒。南非工会已经呼吁对津巴布韦进行封锁，开始只是象征性的，但是也许是施加更大压力的前兆。南非的道德楷模纳尔逊·曼德拉本周在伦敦度过了他90岁的生日，他再次公开宣称”我们的邻国津巴布韦有一个悲惨的失败的领导者”。
South Africa remains the key. Its leaders have long had the power to bring Mr Mugabe to his knees, just as their white predecessors squeezed the life out of Rhodesia’s white-supremacist leader, Ian Smith, three decades ago, letting Mr Mugabe take over when Rhodesia became Zimbabwe. Mr Mbeki will argue that economic strangulation would hurt the hapless Zimbabwean masses more than the pampered elite around Mr Mugabe. In the short run, he is right. Humanitarian aid must continue to flow into Zimbabwe, though Mr Mugabe has made it hard-often impossible-for charitable outfits to ensure that their largesse goes directly to the right poor people. But South Africa, along with other countries in the SADC, should certainly join in imposing the targeted sanctions already enforced by the EU, the Americans and other governments against Mr Mugabe and 130-odd of his closest comrades, who are banned from visiting the penalising countries and have had their assets there frozen. Depriving Mr Mugabe’s cronies of trips to a decent country that works could have a salutary effect.
南非仍然是关键。长久以来，它的领导者们都有使穆加贝先生下台的能力，就像30年前，他们的白人先辈将罗德西亚推崇白人至上的领导者伊恩·史密斯赶下台，并在罗德西亚更名为津巴布韦后扶植穆加贝先生上台。姆贝基先生会争论说，经济制裁对可怜的津巴布韦人民造成的伤害，要远大于给穆加贝先生周围那些脑满肥肠的精英们带来的伤害。从短期来看，他是对的。应该继续向津巴布韦提供人道主义援助，但是由于慈善组织要确保他们的捐助确实送到真正的穷人手中，因此在穆加贝先生的阻挠下，这显得有些困难，多数情况下，甚至根本不可能。但是南非和 SADC的其它国家应该切实加入到制裁行动中来，这次制裁是由欧盟、美国和其它国家发起的，针对的是穆加贝先生和他的130多名亲信，他们被禁止进入这些国家，他们的资产也被冻结。禁止穆加贝先生的手下到别的国家访问会带来很好的效果。
The African Union (AU), which embraces all 53 of Africa’s countries, should also be far more robustly involved. Unlike the SADC, which is often paralysed by its search for consensus, the AU’s rules provide for decisions, specifically including the imposition of sanctions on errant members, to be taken by a two-thirds majority. The union is holding its annual summit next week, in Egypt. It should call on its members not to recognise Mr Mugabe as president or his party as the government.
包括所有53个非洲国家在内的非盟应该更深的介入此事。不同于经常为了达成一致协议而无所作为的SADC，非盟的规则有利于形成决议，它明确规定，只要 2/3的多数成员同意，就可以对出了问题的成员国进行强制性的制裁。非盟下周将在埃及举行年会。它应该呼吁其成员国不承认穆加贝先生的总统地位和他的政党领导的政府。
The United Nations, too, must be ready to help. South Africa has been disgracefully blocking discussion of Zimbabwe in the 15-strong Security Council, of which it is a current member (see article). But this week it was shamed into signing a unanimous statement deploring the Zimbabwean government’s violence. There have been calls for the UN to send peacekeepers and to oversee fresh elections: a nice idea that will not come to pass any time soon. At present, no such resolution in the Security Council would get the necessary support, especially from Russia and China (not to mention South Africa). Moreover, while the loss of life in such blighted places as Sudan’s Darfur province and Somalia is still many times higher than in Zimbabwe, the UN has proved unable to send anything like an adequate force to those places; getting the Security Council, and in particular China, to take action over Darfur was like pulling teeth. Yet there is every reason to start campaigning for the UN to take up the cause of Zimbabwe too. It should certainly help to manage a fresh election.
联合国也应该准备提供帮助。作为当前联合国安理会15个成员国中的一个，南非做出了一件不光彩的事情，它阻止了关于津巴布韦问题的讨论。但是本周，它羞愧的在一份一致同意谴责津巴布韦政府暴力行为的声明上签字。有人呼吁联合国派出维和部队，并且监督重新选举：这是个好主意，但是近期不可能实现。目前，这样的决议在联合国安理会得不到足够的支持，特别是来自俄罗斯和中国的支持（更不要说南非了）。而且，目前在苏丹达尔富尔和索马里死亡的人数仍然是津巴布韦的好几倍，而联合国已经没有能力向那些地区提供任何帮助，例如一支充足的部队；希望安理会，特别是中国在达尔富尔采取行动就像拔牙一样。然而我们有理由为了联合国也关注津巴布韦问题而努力。这无疑有助于重新进行一次公正的选举。
Why not send in the troops?
为什么不派遣部队？
Some romantic spirits ask why Mr Mugabe cannot be ousted by force-by Western powers, if not the UN. It would be glorious if he were removed by any method at all. But it remains unthinkable for such an action to be taken without the co-operation-logistical, among other things-of the region’s leaders. Persuading them to collaborate in isolating Mr Mugabe is hard enough. Deploying an international force should not be ruled out in the future, especially if the violence spreads. But other methods, with Africans to the fore, must be tried first.
一些不切实际的人问，为什么不能让西方国家或者联合国使用武力迫使穆加贝先生下台。无论用什么办法，如果他能下台，无疑是一件令人愉快的事情。但是不谈其它的，光从逻辑上讲，没有这个区域其它国家的领导者合作，很难想象会有这样的事情发生。要说服他们孤立穆加贝先生相当困难。不排除将来会派驻国际部队，尤其是当暴力蔓延的时候。但是，为了非洲人民，应该首先考虑其它的办法。
In any event, the rich world should spell out a generous and co-ordinated recovery plan to be acted on as soon as Mr Mugabe has gone and proper elections held that would presumably bring Mr Tsvangirai to power. Zimbabwe needs at least $10 billion to put it on the path to recovery. Yet it is a resource-rich country with a core of well-educated people, millions of whom have fled abroad and must be wooed back home. Mr Mugabe may cling to power for a while, but his grip is weaker. Zimbabwe needs help from the West. But most of all it needs its African neighbours to tell the tyrant unambiguously to go-and to snuff him out if he refuses. It can be done.
无论如何，一旦穆加贝先生下台，进行真正的选举的话，茨万吉拉伊先生可能会掌握政权。此时，发达国家应该提出一个慷慨而协调的复苏计划以供实施。津巴布韦要走上正轨至少需要100亿美元。这个国家资源丰富，但是关键还是要有受到良好教育的人民，现在他们中有数百万流亡海外，必须让他们回国。穆加贝先生也许会暂时掌握权力，但是他的控制力越来越弱。津巴布韦需要来自西方的帮助。但是现在最重要的，是它的非洲邻国明确声明，暴君必须下台，否则就消灭他。这是完全可以做到的。
译者：zidance http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=12371&extra=page%3D1