Video games move online
视频游戏的云端转移

A giant sucking sound
巨大的吸食声

Nov 5th 2009
From The Economist print editio

The internet swallows another media business, but spits out some hope
互联网吞噬掉的是另一个媒体商业，但吐出的是希望

Now you can steal cars online, with your friends
现在你可以和朋友一起在线偷窃汽车

IN THE eyes of media executives, the internet is a malevolent vacuum-cleaner, sucking in one business after another. Music, software and videos are all increasingly obtained online—often free of charge. Now it is the turn of video games. A combination of new technology and compelling economics means that many, if not most, of them will be played online soon.

在媒体主管的眼中，互联网就是一个恶毒的真空吸尘器，吸食掉一个又一个的行业商机。越来越多的音乐，软件和视频都可以透过互联网得到-通常还是免费的。现在轮到视频游戏行业了。新科技和紧迫的经济形式结合在一起意味着许多的游戏，如果不是决大部分的话，都将通过互联网来玩。

Online gaming is not new. Since the early days of the internet, netizens have indulged in “massively multiplayer role-playing online games”, a genre that, now complete with fancy graphics, is still very popular, particularly in Asia. Some console games can be played online. “Episodic” gaming, in which new add-ons for console games can be downloaded for a fee, is gaining ground. And there are many “casual” online games, often web-based versions of board and card games. Yet in 2009, all these online offerings are expected to account for just $9.4 billion of the $55 billion market for video games, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers, a consultancy.

在线游戏不是新东西。在互联网早期，网民们已经沉迷于那种“大规模多玩家的角色扮演类在线游戏”——现在此类游戏借助着精美的影像而显得日益完美并仍然在流行，特别是在亚洲。另一些平台端的游戏则可以在线上玩。而Episodic类的游戏（支持游戏机平台端的该类游戏版本可通过付费下载得到），正在不断扩大着份额。在网上同时也有着许多“随性”的游戏，通常是网络版的扑克纸牌游戏等。PricewaterhouseCoopers咨询机构预计，2009年所有这些线上提供的游戏占有550亿美元游戏市场份额中的94亿。

There are several reasons to think, however, that video games have begun the transition from an industry primarily based on consoles and shrink-wrapped software to one in which online services dominate. Conventional gaming has not proved as resistant to the recession as many had expected. In America, the industry’s biggest market, sales of games were down 12% in the first nine months of the year compared with the same period in 2008, according to NPD Group, a market-research firm. Nintendo recently admitted that sales of its Wii console, long the market leader, had stalled.

以往的视频游戏行业主要是基于游戏机平台的游戏软件贩售的商业模式，然而这种模式已经开始转变成在线服务为主导的模式，这里面有几个原因可以思考。常规类游戏已经证明它未能如愿的抵挡住经济的衰退潮。在游戏业市场最大的美国，来自NPD市场调查机构的数据显示，游戏销售在今年头九个月比2008年同期下跌了12个百分点。任天堂最近也承认它的曾经销售长红的Wii游戏机现在已步履阑珊。

Meanwhile alternatives are emerging quickly. Many personal computers are powerful enough to run fast-moving, graphics-heavy games just as well as consoles. As a result, firms are offering online games that can be played either through “client” software, which users download, or via a web browser. Gameforge, one of the biggest and fastest growing online-gaming firms, offers 15 games and has more than 85m registered players. OnLive and Otoy, for their part, plan to let users play console games without consoles, by streaming them over the internet.

同时可选择的其他游戏方式却在快速出现。许多的个人PC已经有着足够的性能运行那些高速移动,高图形负荷的游戏，就像在游戏机上运行一样。因此，游戏厂商们都在提供相关游戏的线上版，它们可以通过下载客户端运行，或是通过浏览器运行。像其中的Gameforge公司，它是发展最快也是目前其中最大的线上游戏公司，它提供了15个游戏，拥有八千五百万的注册玩家。另外像OnLive and Otoy则计划让玩家通过网络串流而非使用游戏机设备的方式来玩游戏机平台的游戏。

Then there is mobile gaming. Handsets have long come with rudimentary games installed, but smart-phones allow users to download new games or play online via a wireless internet connection. Apple’s App Store, for instance, is full of games.

另外别忘了还有手机端游戏也来插一脚。手机上安装有基本的简单游戏由来已久，但现在的智能电话允许用户下载新的游戏或是通过无线连接互联网的方式玩在线游戏。苹果的app商店里早已充斥着各类游戏。

These trends are dwarfed, however, by the explosion of “social” games, which have become all the rage on social networks such as Facebook. These are more about interaction than action: players either join their friends for an online game of poker or Scrabble, or to create and show off virtual pets, farms and mob families. Zynga, the market leader, which had 22m users in January, now has more than 170m.

虽然跟随着社区网络而来的社交类游戏如Facebook等大爆发并风行一时，但这些趋势目前都还不够强大。因为此类游戏更多的是互动类而非动作类。也就是说用户是为了一个线上扑克牌游戏或拼字游戏，或是为创立或炫耀虚拟宠物，虚拟农场等而加入他们的朋友。这块市场的领先者Zynga在一月份有着两千两百万的用户量，而到现在则是超过1.7亿用户。

As gaming moves online, the economics of the industry are changing. Conventional games take years to develop and cost millions to market, and rely on big sales in their first few weeks of release to recoup the investment, making the launch of a new game a gamble akin to a Hollywood studio’s decision to produce a big-budget film. As a result, like Hollywood, big gamemakers focus on successful franchises with fancy effects and plenty of action—and have moved online only hesitantly.

该行业的经济状况因为游戏的线上转移而出现了变化。常规类的游戏需要数年时间来开发，还要花费数千万资金做市场推广，并且游戏刚上市的开始几周是否能卖个满堂红往往决定着该游戏能否收回当初的投资。这使新游戏的投产像是场赌博，类似于好莱坞的制片厂决定对一个大预算影片的制作那样。由此带来的结果也是好莱坞似的，大的游戏厂商关注的是票房保证的特技效果和动作堆叠，只有犹豫不决时才将游戏转到线上。

Online games, in particular the social kind, are hard for firms steeped in this model to make, argues Kristian Segerstrale, the boss of Playfish, the number two in social gaming. Developing a new game takes only a few months and costs a few hundred thousand dollars. It can still be improved after its launch. Virtual distribution is far cheaper, and marketing tends to be too, since games often spread “virally” among friends on social networks.

线上游戏，特别是社交类的，很难让游戏公司专注于此开发，Kristian Segerstrale是这么认为的。他是排名第二的社交游戏公司Playfish的老板。开发一款新的线上游戏只需花几个月时间和几十万美元。游戏发布之后还可以不断改进。而虚拟化的发行更是便宜，市场营销也一样低成本，因为游戏通常在社区的朋友间大量扩散。

Steve Perlman, OnLive’s boss, points out that online games have benefits for both users and publishers. Users can take advantage of evolutionary improvements in games, rather than having to go out and buy new ones. And publishers no longer have to worry about piracy, as their games live in the cloud rather than on a disc that can be copied.

OnLive的老板Steve Perlman指出在线游戏让用户和出版商双方都受益。用户可以享受到游戏不断改进的好处，而不用非得走出家门去再买一张新的改进版本。出版商不再担心盗版问题，因为他们的游戏生存在云端而不是以一张极其容易复制的光碟形式存在。

The most important change will be in the way publishers earn money. Although some are charging subscription fees to players of online games or selling advertising, many of them make most of their money by managing an online economy, complete with virtual goods and a digital currency. Playing is free, but users can get ahead by buying extra bits and bobs.

这中间带来的最大变化是出版商的收费方式。虽然有些游戏收取用户一定的订阅费或是出售广告，但许多出版商的收益来自管理一个线上经济模式，再上加上虚拟的物品和数字货币。玩是免费的，但用户可以付费购买额外的不同物品来让游戏进行下去。

The beauty of the model is that it allows for “price discrimination”, says Atul Bagga of ThinkEquity, an investment bank. Miserly players can still participate in the game and pay indirectly by being exposed to advertising. Those with more to spend can buy virtual goods. Although only a tenth of social gamers actually do so, he says, such schemes earn game operators $28m a month. By 2012, he forecasts, annual revenues will have grown to $1.2 billion.

“最绝的模式是它允许价格识别（price discrimination）”，ThinkEquity投行的Atul Bagga说道。吝啬的玩家依然可以参与到游戏里，但以开放自己给广告投放的方式间接支付费用。有钱的用户则可以直接买虚拟物品。Atul Bagga说，虽然只有十分之一的社交游戏玩家会这么做，但这种模式依然可以每月收入达到280万美元。他预计到2012年，每年的收益将达到12亿美元。

Yet the “free-to-play” model has its problems. Online players are a fickle bunch who move to new games quickly. More fundamentally, collecting small sums from millions of users is expensive, says Simon Levene of Accel Partners, a venture-capital firm that has investments in both Gameforge and Playfish. Mobile operators, for instance, take a big cut when payments are made using “premium” text messages.

但“免费”的模式还是有它自己的问题。因为在线玩家都是一群易变的人，他们很快就会从一个游戏转到另一个游戏。风险资本公司Accel Partners的Simon Lvene说到，基本上，从数量巨大的每个用户手中收取那一丁点费用的成本是非常高昂的。该公司在 Gameforge和Playfish两家公司身上都有投资。举例来说，如果通过短信付费的方式缴费，移动运营商就会吞掉其中很大一块。

Facebook, Apple and a raft of start-ups are all trying to develop a low-cost payment system, which could be a lucrative undertaking in itself. If they succeed, they may bring some relief to media firms that have seen much of their business disappear into the vacuum: many in the music and newspaper businesses, for example, are pinning their hopes on the idea that consumers can be persuaded to pay small amounts for digital wares.

Facebook，苹果和一排开创者都在努力发展一种低成本的缴费系统，这系统本身就是一个相当有利可图的业务。如果他们成功，也许能给那些看到自己很多商业已经被这个吸尘器吸走的媒体公司带来一些宽慰，比方说，音乐和新闻报业就都将他们的希望放在能说服消费者对数字商品支付一小点费用。