Cities and their deficits
城市及其赤字

Staring into the abyss
滑入深渊
May 28th 2009 | CHICAGO AND PITTSBURGH
From The Economist print edition

Lay off 4,000 workers, or let the mayor cut the grass?
解雇4,000名工人，或者让市长除草？

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CHICAGO’S skyline may be glorious (see above), but the city’s big shoulders are slumped. In November the city passed a budget to close a $469m shortfall. But in the first four months of 2009 a gap opened again, of $96m. By the end of the year, the city expects it to be about $300m.

芝加哥的外表依旧辉煌（见上图），但是这座城市的大梁却已坍塌。去年11月，芝加哥通过一项预算方案，旨在弥补4.69亿美元的预算缺口。但是截止09年前四个月，整个城市又面临9600万美元的差额，预计到今年年底总额将达到3亿美元。

A recent report by the Philadelphia Research Initiative, an arm of the Pew Charitable Trust, looks at how 13 cities are dealing with budget problems. All but one have deficits, thanks to the fall in property taxes, the dramatic drop in consumer spending, high unemployment and the subsequent decrease in income tax revenues. Budgeting, usually a headache endured annually, has become a chronic migraine for many city governments. Even pessimistic revenue projections have had to be revised.

在最近的一份报告中，Philadelphia Research Initiative（隶属于Pew Charitable Trust）探讨了13个城市各自如何应对所面临的预算问题。由于财产税下滑、消费开支紧缩、失业率攀升以及相伴随的所得税收入减少，13个城市中有12个出现赤字。原来一年一次让人头疼的预算问题，现在已成为许多市政府的慢性顽疾。甚至原本已悲观的收入预期都不得不一再下调。

Most cities are cutting services. Hiring freezes are the norm. Employee-related costs—payroll, pensions and health benefits—make up the largest part of any city budget, generally 60-75% (and more than 80% of Chicago’s). Richard Daley, Chicago’s mayor, recently proposed that the city’s 3,600 non-unionised workers should take 16 days of unpaid holiday by December 31st. New York City is preparing to cut 3,800 municipal jobs. Atlanta, meanwhile, is imposing a 36-hour work week for almost all its city workers, including the police. This has saved “the Big Peach” $11.5m.

多数城市在削减公共服务。冻结招聘也很普遍。在所有城市预算中，雇员成本（工资、退休金和医疗保险）占据最大部分，通常为60-75%（芝加哥超过80%）。芝加哥市长Richard Daley最近就提议该市的3,600名非工会工人应在12月31日前安排16天的无薪假期，而纽约市正计划裁减3,800个市政工作岗位。与此同时，亚特兰大市强迫所有市政工人（包括警察）每周工作36小时，这样可以为它节省1,150万美元。

In Chicago Mr Daley wants unionised employees, who comprise 90% of all city workers, to make concessions as well. The unions, unsurprisingly, are refusing to budge. They want a guarantee that if they comply with Mr Daley’s demands now, they will not face layoffs as Chicago’s revenues continue their downward slide. Antonio Villaraigosa, Los Angeles’s mayor, is seeking 1,200 city worker layoffs and 26 furlough days to close his $529m deficit. Up to 2,800 could be fired unless the unions make concessions. Boston has had better luck with its unions, who have recently given up pay rises or deferred them.

在芝加哥，Daley市长想要工会工人（占市政工人总数的90%）也接受同样的安排。毫不奇怪，工会拒绝让步。他们要求得到保证，即如果他们此时接受Daley的建议，那么市政府在未来情况进一步恶化时也不得解雇工会成员。在洛杉矶，市长Antonio Villaraigosa正计划解雇1,200名市政工人并安排26天的无薪假期，以弥补5.29亿美元的预算赤字。除非工会作出让步，否则多达2,800人将被解雇。波士顿在工会方面相对顺利一些，后者最近已放弃或推迟加薪。

Union concessions are also needed to reduce pension and health costs. These will be even trickier to negotiate. Underfunded pension plans are a growing worry for many cities. Philadelphia wants new recruits to contribute more to their pensions. Kansas City hopes to reduce health costs though increased employee contributions.

工会的让步对于降低退休金和医疗开销也是必要的，虽然这些问题上的谈判更加麻烦。对于许多城市而言，退休金计划亏空正成为日益严重的问题。费城就希望新雇员提高退休金个人缴纳比例。同时，堪萨斯城则希望通过提高个人部分以降低医疗开支。        

The Pew report also looked at how cities are generating revenue. Many of them, like Boston, do not have the authority to raise taxes and must rely on state funding. New York City requires state approval to levy sales taxes, while a public vote is needed in Columbus, Ohio. Even where cities have some flexibility, argues Michael Pagano of the University of Illinois at Chicago, they cannot tap important engines of growth, hospitals and universities, because these are tax-exempt. Chris Briem, an economist at the University of Pittsburgh, thinks a commuter tax would help offset costs. As he points out (and as many mayors have long argued), suburban commuters still use the city police and drive on city streets.

Pew的报告还介绍了不同城市如何努力创造更多的收入。这些城市中有许多（像波士顿）没有权力提高税收，只能倚赖各州提供资金支持。纽约市需要州政府的批准以征收销售税，而俄亥俄州的哥伦布市则需要公投表决。据芝加哥伊利诺伊大学Michael Pagano称，即使那些有一定灵活性的城市，他们也无法从优势产业、医院和大学获得收入，因为这些机构都是免税的。匹兹堡大学的一位经济学家Chris Briem认为非居民税可帮助补偿开销。他指出（正如许多市长一直在强调的），郊区的通勤者也在使用城市的警察和交通服务。

Fees may be an easier option. New York’s mayor, Michael Bloomberg, wants to impose a five-cent fee on plastic bags. Seattle has raised fees for rubbish collection. Several cities are considering leasing municipal assets. Chicago has raised $3.5 billion since 2005 by leasing a tollway, garages and parking meters. Credit for such deals, however, is drying up.

收费也是个不错的选择。纽约市市长Michael Bloomberg想对每个塑料袋收取5美分的费用。西雅图已提高垃圾收集费。同时，几个城市正在考虑出租市政资产。芝加哥在2005年已从出租收费公路、车库和停车计时器获得35亿美元的收入。但是，这些资源已趋于用尽。

All in all, the future looks grim. Even if the economy recovers tomorrow, there is generally an 18-24-month lag before cities feel it. Many will be in worse shape in 2010 and 2011, according to the National League of Cities, a lobby group. But most are plugging present holes with little thought for the morrow.

总的来说，未来并不乐观。即使经济形势明天就开始恢复，也要等18－24个月才能显现出效果。据全国城市联盟（一个游说组织）预测，到2010年和2011年，全国许多城市的境况将更加糟糕。然而，这些城市中多数眼下正忙于救火，根本无暇考虑明天。

The one bright spot in the Pew report, surprisingly, is Pittsburgh. The city and its region, once synonymous with steel, lost 120,000 manufacturing jobs in the 1980s. But over three decades it diversified. Now its main industries, health care and education, are thriving. The waterfront, once lined with factories, has been transformed into parks. Bethlehem Steel’s former home is now the site for a casino resort. Pittsburgh narrowly avoided bankruptcy in 2003, and was forced into state receivership. But it actually has a surplus now.

让人意想不到的是，Pew报告中的唯一亮点是匹兹堡。这座城市及其周边地区曾以钢铁著称，在上世纪80年代失去了120,000个制造业岗位。但是近30年来，它实现了多元化发展。现在它的主要产业－医疗和教育正蓬勃发展。曾经工厂林立的湖滨现已改造成公园，伯利恒钢铁公司的原址现在是赌场旅馆。匹兹堡在2003年勉强躲过一次破产，随后被迫转由州政府接管。但是今天，它却保持着难得的财政盈余。

Pittsburgh is in relatively good shape because it largely missed the housing and dotcom booms enjoyed by the rest of the county. Indeed, it is currently building a new sports arena and a new hospital. Because of its 2003 brush with bankruptcy, it cut its city workforce by a quarter, implemented a salary freeze and made many hard decisions, such as closing fire stations. The other cities in Pew’s report could learn a few lessons from Pittsburgh.

匹兹堡今天的幸运来自于它在很大程度上躲过了席卷全国其它地区的房地产和互联网泡沫，比如当下它就在建设实实在在的体育场和医院。因为2003年的破产危机，它裁掉了四分之一的雇员，实施了薪资冻结，并作出许多艰难的决定，比如关闭消防站。这些经验对于报告中的其它城市有一定的借鉴意义。

When all else fails, there is still civic pride to fall back on. Some cities are appealing to their citizens—to help at a youth centre, for example, when its budget has been cut. The mayor of Toledo, Ohio, is going one step further. He is personally mowing a city park’s grass.

最后，即使所有手段都失败了，还有市民责任感可以倚赖。例如，在预算削减之后，一些城市呼吁其市民去青年中心作志愿服务。而俄亥俄州托莱多市市长则更进一步――他亲自为市政公园除草。

《经济学人》（The Economist（http://www.economist.com））
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