[2008.11.08] 台湾与大陆：警惕大陆的怀柔术

Taiwan and China
台湾与中国大陆

Resisting China’s charm offensive
警惕中国大陆的怀柔术

Nov 6th 2008 | TAIPEI
From The Economist print edition

Rather than bringing unification closer, new economic ties solidify the status quo
中国大陆并未急于立刻统一,仅以新经济纽带拴紧现状
AFP


CHIANG PIN-KUNG, who heads the Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF), the body through which Taiwan talks to China, called it “a key moment” and a “win-win economic situation”. The arrival in Taiwan on November 3rd of his mainland Chinese counterpart, Chen Yunlin, offered a ray of hope for the island’s faltering economy. Mr Chen, the highest-ranking visitor from China since the end of the civil war in 1949, came to sign a slew of business agreements. But for Taiwan’s president, Ma Ying-jeou, the visit was a gamble.

海基会(负责台湾与中国大陆开展对话的机构)主席江丙坤称此次两岸对话是”有利益于双方经济形势”的”历史性时刻”.与江丙坤相呼应的大陆海协会会长陈云林赴台湾一行给台湾迟滞不前的经济带来了一线生机.陈云林是自1949年内战结束以来，大陆访台官员中级别最高的一位。他此番将与台湾就一系列事务签署协议.对台湾”总统”马英九来说,此次访问就像是一场赌博.

Supporters of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) dogged Mr Chen’s footsteps, with protests accusing Mr Ma of selling out to the Chinese. Thousands of police were deployed to control the demonstrators, but failed to stop them besieging Mr Chen during a banquet in Taipei. His meeting with Mr Ma was rescheduled to fox protesters. Last month Mr Chen’s deputy was assaulted by DPP activists in southern Taiwan. The DPP’s traditional support for formal independence helps explain China’s fondness for Mr Ma, of the Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang. Since he succeeded the DPP’s Chen Shui-bian in May, China has oozed charm.

民进党支持者对陈云林的行程进行了全程追踪,同时抗议马英九”投叛大陆”（背叛台湾）。上千名警员被派遣出来对游行者的活动加以控制,但仍然没能阻止他们将台北设宴款待陈云林一行的酒店团团围住。为了避开抗议者的耳目,”陈马会”的时间安排做出了调整.上个月,陈云林的副手在台南就曾经遭到民进党激进分子的袭击.民进党一贯台独主张乃是中国大陆与国民党交好的主要原因，从马英九五月接替民进党的陈水扁以来,大陆就对其百般示好.

The latest agreements offer more substantial business ties than ever before. Most eye-catching is a big expansion of direct transport links. A new direct air route, avoiding Hong Kong’s airspace, will reduce travel time from Taiwan to Shanghai by over an hour, and save an estimated 40- 50% in fuel costs. Passenger charter flights, at present limited to 36 round-trips each weekend, are to become daily and increase to 108 a week. The number of flight destinations in China will increase to 21 from five, and there will be 60 round-trip charter cargo flights each month. There will also be new direct sea links, with 11 ports in Taiwan and 63 in China open to ships from the other side.

最新签署的协议促成可双方更坚实的商业纽带.最引人注目的要属直达交通航道以前所未有的规模开辟.一条新的直达航空线路使从台湾到上海无须再取道香港,所需时间也缩短了一个多小时,还能节省大约40-50%的燃油花费.客机包机将由仅周末开放改为每天开放,往返次数由每周末36次增至每周总共108次.到达中国大陆的航班种类将由5种增至21种,货运往返航班每个月增加60趟.同时还会开辟新的海上航线,届时台湾将有11个港口,大陆将有63个港口面向彼此开放.

All this should delight Taiwan’s businesses, which have long pushed for direct links. The government estimates that they have invested over $150 billion in China. But the absence of direct links marginalises Taiwan from global supply chains. Wang Lee-rong, of the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, a semi-official think-tank, insists the agreements “are not only symbolic, but will have real impact.” They might help not just Taiwan and China, she says, but the regional economy as a whole. This appeals to Mr Ma at a time when his popularity is slumping, as Taiwan is battered by global financial turmoil.

上述内容将得到台湾商业的欢心,因为他们一直都在力促开辟直达航线.据台湾政府统计,台商在大陆的投资额超过1500亿美圆.来自半官方性质的智库中华经济研究院的Wang Lee-rong坚持认为这些协议”不仅具有代表性,而将带来实质性的影响.”王认为这些协议不仅能够促进台湾和大陆的发展,还对整个区域性经济也有积极作用.这席话打动了因台湾受到金融海啸袭击而支持率骤跌的马英九.

Despite the protests against Mr Chen’s visit, Andrew Yang, of the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies, a think-tank, says most Taiwanese do not see the agreements as surrender to China. Mr Ma’s standing, he argues, depends on whether they can actually revitalise the economy. If global turmoil continues to drag down Taiwan’s economy, he says, it may stay in the doldrums.

尽管陈云林访台遭到抗议, 但是台湾中国高等政策研究会秘书长杨念祖称大多数台湾人不认为这些协议意味着对大陆屈服.他认为马英九的立场落在这些协议能否切实地对台湾经济带来复苏.如果持续受到全球金融海啸的影响,台湾经济将一蹶不振.

For China, the economic accords form part of a broader push to burnish its image in Taiwan. It has even employed one of its traditional courtship rituals by offering a Taiwan zoo a pair of giant pandas-popular with the public, though the Chen administration turned down an earlier offer.

对大陆而言,经济合作为他们进一步在台湾提升形象做出了铺垫.大陆甚至按照其传统礼节赠送了台湾一对大熊猫—–一种广受喜爱的动物,尽管早些时候陈水扁在执政期间回绝了这番好意.

Despite the talk of warming ties, both sides have to walk on political eggshells. China cannot stomach anything that hints at separate statehood for Taiwan. So when he met Mr Ma on November 6th, Mr Chen could not bring himself to call him “president”. And Mr Ma, conscious that there is hardly any popular support in Taiwan for imminent unification with China, has also refrained from overtly political statements. Fudging the issue of Taiwan’s status, he has described its ties with China as “special relations between two regions”.

鉴于这一对话旨在改善两岸关系,双方对避开了政治敏感话题.大陆不能容许任何影射台湾是一个主权国家的行为,因此,在11月6日见到马英九时,陈云林没有称呼其为”总统”.马英九也清楚当下台湾支持与大陆统一的人寥寥无几,于是也避免公开发表任何涉及政治的言论.他以”两个地区的特殊关系”这一表达搪塞了对台湾地位的定位.

He has argued that setting political differences aside will allow the two sides to build mutual trust. This, he hopes, may even lead to broader negotiations on lowering political and military tensions, where, as he reminded Mr Chen, the two sides “have their differences and challenges”. This week Lai Shin-yuan, of Taiwan’s advisory Mainland Affairs Council, said she had urged Mr Chen in a closed-door meeting to remove China’s military threat. She did not reveal his response. But Mr Ma’s avowed goal of a peace treaty seems distant. It would depend on China’s removing the estimated 1,400 missiles it has pointing at Taiwan, which China would not agree to do without a big reciprocal concession from Taiwan. And, unlike the economic talks, which can be handled through notionally “non-governmental” bodies, it would require direct official talks, with all the headaches that would entail.

同时,马英九还称抛开政治问题,两岸是可以建立互信关系的.他还希望这能够推动更多缓和政治,经济紧张局势的谈判,在这些问题上,他曾提醒陈水扁”两岸存在分歧，也面临挑战”.本周大陆事务委员会委员赖幸媛称她曾催促陈水扁召开内部会议商讨消除大陆的军事威胁.她没有公开陈水扁对此时的回应.马英九公开宣布的和平协议看上去似乎很遥远,这一协议要求大陆拆除面向台湾的约1400枚导弹,这点在没有得到双方就台湾问题的重大让步之前,大陆是不会答应的.并且这一对话不同于只需出动非官方名义的组织就能解决的经济和谈, 它需要两岸直接进行官方会谈,各种麻烦事也将接踵而来.

China, however, may be content with this impasse. In recent years, even during Chen Shui-bian’s rule, Chinese officials have shown far greater willingness to leave Taiwan be, as long as it resists any formal declaration of independence. The accords on cross-strait transportation give China’s leaders a chance to show hardline nationalists that their tactics are working. With President Hu Jintao and the prime minister, Wen Jiabao, constitutionally required to step down in 2013, they may be more than happy to leave solving the Taiwan puzzle to their successors.

不过大陆方面也许是乐于保持这一僵持局面的.近些年来,即使在陈水扁执政的时代,大陆政府对台湾越来越听之任之,只要台湾不公然宣布独立就不予以干涉.横跨海峡的交通航线一打通,大陆的领导人也好对民族强硬派有个交代,向他们展示他们的策略正在产生效果.按照宪法,国家主席胡锦涛和总理温家宝将与2013 年卸任,他们或许求之不得地想把解决台湾问题这个迷题留给他们的继任者.

译者：Wordy_Camel    http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=15301&extra=page%3D1

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