Airlines
航空业
Still a bumpy ride
依然是坎坷之旅
Aug 14th 2008
From The Economist print edition
Falling oil prices have lifted airlines’ share prices. Is the crisis over?
回落的油价拉升了航空公司的股价，危机结束了吗？
SEVEN of America’s biggest airlines chalked up combined losses of $5.9 billion in the second quarter of the year, but this week their share prices continued their month-long, gravity-defying rebound. Fuelling the new optimism was a report from Morgan Stanley, an investment bank, suggesting that much of the troubled industry could return to profit as early as 2009. Could the tempest of rising costs and sagging demand that so recently seemed to jeopardise many airlines’ survival already be blowing itself out?
全美前七大航空公司第二季度的综合损失已经达到了59亿美元，但本周它们的股价延续着已经持续了一个月的上扬，并且反弹趋势达到了失重状态。催动新乐观主义的燃料是Morgan Stanley这个著名投行所公布的一份报告；根据该报告的预测，大部分处于混乱的行业最早有可能在2009年回复盈利状态。最近一段时间由成本上升和需求下降共同引发的动荡似乎严重的危及到了航空公司的生存，不知道这种混乱形势是不是已经自生自灭了。
The cause of the change in sentiment is hardly a mystery. When crude-oil futures nearly touched $150 a barrel in mid-July, the airlines were braced for the gravest crisis in their history-something far worse and longer lasting than the aftermath of September 11th 2001. But since then oil futures have fallen steadily, hitting $112.31 on August 12th. The United States Airlines Index has become almost a mirror image of the price of jet fuel, climbing 13% this month while the price of fuel fell by 12%.
造成行情转变的原因并不神秘。当原油的期货价格在7月中旬接近150美元一桶的时候，航空公司已经准备应对有史以来最严重的危机，也许会比911的后果更加严重，并且持续的时间更久。但是油价期货价格持续稳定下降，8月12日达到了每桶112.31美元。美国航空公司指数几乎成了航油价格的反像，本月航油价格下降了12%，但是指数却上升了13%。
William Greene of Morgan Stanley describes the drop in fuel costs, if it lasts, as “a game-changing event for the industry” that would give the airlines “substantial breathing room”, even if demand weakens. He argues that lower fuel prices, combined with the measures the airlines are taking to cut capacity (by grounding older planes) and raise revenue (by charging for services that used to be free), may be enough to return Delta, Northwest, Continental and United to profit next year.
Morgan Stanley将可持续的燃油成本下降形容为”行业拐点事件”，在市场疲软的情况下也可以带给航空公司”充足的喘息机会”。他认为航油价格下降的时候，如果航空公司可以采取减少运量增加收入的举措，例如停飞老飞机和增加收费项目，那么Delta,西北，大陆，以及联合这些航空公司明年也许会实现盈利。
But other observers think it is too early to celebrate just yet. Giovanni Bisignani, the director-general of IATA, the trade body that represents the interests of many of the world’s airlines, warns that despite all the talk of reducing capacity, it is still growing faster than demand. IATA’s figures for June show global capacity rising by 5.5%, whereas passenger growth hit a five-year low of 3.8%. Even in North America, capacity grew faster than traffic.
但是其他的观察家认为现在就庆祝美好前景还为时过早。Giovanni Bisignani所领导的IATA代表着众多国际航空公司的利益，他对空谈削减运力发出了警告，因为运力的增长仍然超过了需求。IATA六月份的数据表明全球运力增加了5.5%,但是仅有3.8%的乘客增长率已经是5年统计数据的最低水平。即使在北美地区，运力的增加也已经超过了乘客的增长。
Mr Bisignani sounds another warning note. He estimates that about 40% of the fuel used by the world’s airlines is still hedged at $75-85 a barrel. When those hedges expire at the end of the year, he says, it will be like abruptly removing a cushion. IATA keeps a watch-list of airlines in financial peril, and Mr Bisignani notes that 26 airlines have already gone out of business this year-compared with 11 after September 11th 2001. He hints that another 20 may give cause for concern.
Bisignani还发出了另一个警告：在国际航空公司使用的航油中，大约有40%的份额固定在75-85美元一桶的对冲价格上。如果交割日在今年年底结束，这就意味着一下子撤走了缓冲垫。IATA将一些陷入财务危机的航空公司列入监察清单，其中的26家已于今年进入歇业状态，而911事件后歇业的只有11家；他暗示还有20家公司应引起充分关注。
Mr Bisignani does, however, believe that some good may come from the crisis. His main hope is that it will speed up what he calls the “normalisation” of the industry through consolidation. For this to happen, however, the obstacles that still prevent airlines in one country taking over those in another will have to go, as they have in the European Union.
Bisignani相信危机也许会带来一些好处，最大的希望是通过整合可以实现他所谓的”航空业规范化”。如果可以成功实现，那么阻碍航空公司跨国收购的壁垒即将消散，这将是欧盟故事的美国版。
Until they do, expect more moves of the sort taken this week by American Airlines, British Airways (BA) and its proposed merger partner, Iberia. On August 14th three airlines said they were applying to the American government for antitrust immunity, to allow them to co-operate closely on flights across the Atlantic. In the past, similar requests have foundered on demands by competition authorities that the petitioning airlines surrender valuable take-off and landing slots, particularly at London’s Heathrow. But the three firms hope that the turmoil in the industry, and the “open skies” agreement between America and Europe that came into force in March, will make regulators more sympathetic.
障碍消除以前，美国航空公司、英国航空公司及其潜在合并伙伴，西班牙航空公司在本周内会采取更多的举措推动整合。本月14日，这三家航空公司宣布他们已经向美国政府申请反垄断豁免，支持他们在跨大西洋航线上的紧密合作。以前类似的请求都因为竞争监管部门的要求而没有成功，因为提出申请的航空公司必须放弃弥足珍贵的起降时间，特别是在伦敦西斯罗机场。这三家公司希望航空业的混乱以及欧美之间签署的”开放领空”协议可以从执法者那里换取一些同情心，虽然该协议有可能在明年3月份才出台。
If they are, the resulting alliance could be the prelude to the emergence of truly global mega-airlines. Some doubt whether these are the answer to the industry’s chronic instability. But if the drop in the price of oil is not sustained, that idea may be tested sooner rather than later.
如果他们成功整合，那么这个新联盟的出现很有可能成为真正意义上全球大型航空公司登上舞台的序曲。也许会有人怀疑这种趋势是否可以解决航空业积重难返的混乱，如果油价的下跌不能持续，那么这个理念很快就会被验证。
译者：Tidehunter http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=13416&extra=page%3D1
原油问题确实头疼