Mad, bad and dangerous to know 疯狂，糟糕，危险重重

Banyan

菩提

Mad, bad and dangerous to know

疯狂，糟糕，危险重重

Jan 14th 2010

From The Economist print edition

Monetary folly is the latest affliction visited on North Korea’s people by the world’s worst government

在世界上最恶劣的政府统治下，朝鲜民众近来又被荒唐的货币政策所折磨。

JUST over a month ago North Korea announced a currency reform. All notes and coins in circulation were replaced by a new currency that lopped a couple of zeros from the old North Korean won. New currencies for old, as Ghana and others have shown, can send a strong signal from governments breaking with an inflationary past and putting sound money back into citizens’ pockets. In North Korea things are different. As Nicholas Eberstadt, a scholar of the country, puts it, the state has “a deep philosophical problem” with money in anyone’s pockets but its own.

就在一个月前，朝鲜宣布进行货币改革。所有流通中的纸币和硬币都被新货币所取代，新朝鲜圆的面值是旧币的100倍。根据加纳和其他地方的经验显示，货币的更新换代是政府发出的强烈信号，即打破过往的通货膨胀，使得公民再次拥有健全货币。而朝鲜的情况则恰恰相反。就像朝鲜问题学者Nicholas Eberstadt指出的那样，朝鲜政权不放心把钱放在任何人的口袋里，除了自己本身，这是个“深刻的哲学问题”。

Yes, the move was intended to tame inflation. But it was mainly a step towards North Korea’s aim, laid down by Kim Jong Il, the Dear Leader, of becoming a “strong and prosperous nation” by 2012. This fragrant date is the centenary of the birth of Kim Il Sung, divine father of the North Korean people and late biological one of the current dictator. The Great Leader and perpetual president, who died in body in 1994, ruled over a fabled era for North Korea, in which money was of no consequence: the state furnished his children with everything. In demonetising an economy, only Pol Pot attained greater purity.

诚然，这一举动是为了抑制通货膨胀。但这主要是朝鲜亲爱领袖金正日所制定的“在2012年建成强大而繁荣国家”目标中的一个步骤。2012年这一美好的年份是朝鲜人民神圣的父亲、也是现任独裁统治者金正日之父金日成的百岁诞辰。伟大领袖和永远的国家主席金日成于1994年逝世，在他统治下，朝鲜经历了一个传说般的时代：在那时候，钱毫无用处，国家为它的子民们提供所有物品。在废止货币经济方面，只有波尔布特（柬埔寨红色高棉时期领导人——译注1）达到了比朝鲜更高的纯粹境界。

But the collapse of the Soviet Union did for the command economy. A famine in the mid-1990s killed 600,000-1m of North Korea’s 22m inhabitants. Informal markets, clandestine at first, sprang up as “coping mechanisms”. Very soon, as North Koreans themselves joked, anything was for sale, bar “cat’s horns”. Economic “reforms” announced in 2002 were a belated recognition of the role of markets—and of money.

而苏联的解体亦使得指令经济体制终结。上世纪90年代中期，朝鲜经历了大饥荒，该国2200万人口中有60-100万死于饥饿。作为“应对机制”，原本暗中经营的民间市场如雨后春笋般涌现。朝鲜人自我揶揄道：立刻间，除了“猫角”（译注2），任何东西都能在市场上买到。2002年，官方宣布经济改革，这是对市场和货币的地位迟来的认可。

But Mr Kim’s men have since attempted to squeeze the genie back in the bottle. From 2008, efforts accelerated to revive the public distribution system and clamp down on markets. First, women under 40, the main cohort of traders, were banned from markets, which have since been closed. Travel restrictions, especially near the Chinese border, were reimposed. “Antisocialist Conscience Investigation” teams fanned out. With market activity criminalised, punishments got harsher. In low-level “labour training-centres”, where most economic “criminals” are housed, 60% of inmates have seen executions and 90% witnessed forced starvation, refugees tell surveys by Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland for the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

但从那以后，金正日的官员们一直试图想把“市场”这一妖怪重新收回到瓶中。自2008年，他们加快了如上行动，恢复了公有分配体制并取缔了市场。首先，商人主力军，即40岁以下的妇女，被勒令禁止进入市场，此后市场亦被关闭。然后加强旅行限制，尤其是在靠近中国边境地区。“反社会主义良心调查巡逻队”被派往各地。市场活动则被视作违法，惩罚愈加残酷。Stephan Haggard和Marcus Noland正在为彼得森国际经济研究所进行调查，逃北者向他们表示，大多数的经济罪犯被关押在初级“劳动培训中心”，60%的罪犯被处决，90%的人被目睹强迫挨饿。

The currency reform was an effort by Mr Kim to bring his chicks back under his wing, as if a fabled era is to return. It entailed the destruction of what counted in North Korea for private wealth. A 100,000 old-won limit was placed on what households could convert from old to new, equivalent to one or two years’ state wages. But households’ meagre state incomes were boosted by market activities. At the prevailing black-market rate, the sum represented just $30, barely enough to buy a 50kg sack of rice. It is not just traders, petty or great, who need cash for inventories. Households riding out the vagaries of harvests and the public-distribution system need plenty too. And so a remarkable thing happened in this repressive state. The public angrily protested, putting the state’s resolve in doubt. It announced a flurry of revisions to soften the impact. In a new-year fanfare of achievements by the state media, no mention was made of the reform.

金正日希望能通过货币改革这一措施使得民众们重归他的羽翼之下，让金日成的传说年代再次重现。对朝鲜人的私人财产而言，该举措是一次毁灭性的打击。一个家庭最多只能将10万旧朝鲜圆兑换成新币，这相当于一到两年的工人工资。但市场活动使得家庭原本微薄的收入变得水涨船高。按照现行黑市汇率，10万旧币只相当于30美元，仅仅够买一袋50公斤的大米。不只是大小商贩需要现金进货，各户人家不能光靠没有定数的粮食收成及公有分配体系过日子，他们也需要一些现金。所以民众们愤怒地提出抗议，在这个民意被压制的国家，抗议可是一件不寻常的事情，这也使得政府已决定之事又生变数。朝鲜又急速修改决定来缓解此事造成的冲击。新年之际，在该国国家媒体对去年成就进行吹嘘时，货币改革未被提及。

As for inflation, if it was a problem before—the old won’s black-market rate against the dollar had fallen by 95% since 2002—it is much more so now. Thanks to the crackdown on private markets and uncertainties about the currency measures, the black-market exchange rate has apparently tumbled by half. Meanwhile, Good Friends, a South Korean NGO, reports nominal prices for rice higher than before the conversion (implying a 100-fold increase) and still “soaring by the hour”.

至于通货膨胀，如果它以前是个问题（从2002年起，在黑市上，旧币与美元的汇率比下跌了95%），那现在就是个大问题。因为私人市场被取缔及货币政策的踌躇不定，黑市上的汇率又大幅下挫近50%。同时，韩国的一个非政府组织“好朋友”（Good Friends）报告说朝鲜大米的名义价格比货币改革前还要高（这意味着上涨了100倍之多），而且价格“仍在时刻飞涨”。

Punishing state enemies in the private sector is part of it. So is rewarding friends. State salaries, including for soldiers, have been increased by up to 100 times—in new-currency terms. This has brought workers back to their state units. But those units have few inputs or end-buyers, and many factories have anyway long been stripped by managers of machinery, copper wire or anything of value. Last month an edict banned the rapid dollarisation of the economy that is taking place. Yet brutally enforcing it will anger not just market traders with dollars and Chinese yuan, but also the mafia elites at the heart of the regime.

货币改革赏罚分明，既惩罚了私营部门的国家公敌，亦奖励了支持者。在新的货币体制下，公务员薪水（包括军人）上涨了100倍。这使得工人们又回到了国营单位。但这些单位几乎没有投入，产品也没有最终买家，而且许多工厂的机器、铜线和任何有价值的东西早就被管理者们用各种方法变卖了。上个月颁布了一项法令，禁止正在发生的经济迅速美元化。但该法令粗暴执行不仅激怒了使用美元和人民币的市场商人们，该国政权核心的精英小集团对此亦有怨言。

With a nuclear North Korea now on the cusp of hyperinflation, a question is how this will affect relations with China and the West. Many predict a more belligerent tone. But the opposite seems as likely, at least for the time being. The regime is desperate for money and aid, which explains its milder rhetoric towards both South Korea and the United States. As for China, Mr Kim, who is scared of flying, is rumoured to be poised to board his armoured train for Beijing. His chief benefactor will probably give just enough aid to keep him afloat, while demanding concessions. China seems to be behind the revival of plans for a port near the Russian border with access to the Sea of Japan.

拥有核武器的朝鲜如今正处在超通货膨胀的边缘。人们关注这将会怎样影响该国与中国及西方的关系。许多人预测说朝鲜的姿态将更趋于好战。但似乎可能发生相反的状况，至少是现在。朝鲜政权正亟需金钱和援助，这也解释了它针对韩国及美国的温和措辞。至于中国，有传言称惧怕乘飞机的金正日正准备搭乘他全副武装的火车专列前往北京。作为他的主要捐助者，中国大概会给予他能维持政权的适量援助，不多不少，并要求其作出让步。在朝鲜靠近俄罗斯边境修建港口的计划又被重提，中国似乎是该计划的幕后推手，以取得进入日本海的通道。

The wrong Un

错误的人—金正银

What the currency fiasco means for the regime’s standing is still harder to gauge. A succession process is in train, with Mr Kim attempting to anoint his third son, Kim Jong Un, as heir. On his recent birthday, the official media report, the “morning star” Venus shed an unusually bright light above Mount Paektu, on whose sacred slopes the Dear Leader himself was born, a miracle that took place in a log cabin depicted on the new banknotes.

对于朝鲜政权的稳定来说，此次货币政策的惨败意味着什么仍难以衡量。继承计划已准备就绪，金正日试图选定其第三子金正恩作为继承人。在金正恩最近一次生日当天，朝鲜官方媒体报道说白头山上的启明星发出格外的耀眼的光芒。金正日本人就出生在白头山神圣斜坡上的一间原木小屋中，新朝鲜圆上描绘了这一奇迹。

Nothing is known about the 27- or 28-year-old, except that at his Swiss school he was a bossy brat on the basketball court. Now Western spooks claim he is behind the currency reform. For those hoping that a third-generation Kim will be unable to keep this regime from crumbling, that is great news. Should he cling to power, however, such incompetence is more cause for despair.

27或28岁的金正恩是个谜一样的人物，外界对他毫不了解。除了知道他在瑞士读书期间，是篮球场上的霸道小子。现在西方情报人员称他是货币改革的幕后人物。对那些希望这位金氏第三代将无法挽回政权崩溃的人来说，这可是个好消息。金正银将要执掌大权，然而，如此的无能只会更令人失望。

译者: 光一

译注

1 波尔布特 ：柬共在1975年胜利后，成立民主柬埔寨。波尔布特根据他极左的意识，企图在经济基础和思想基础都非常落后的柬埔寨进行无阶级差别、无城乡差别、无货币、无商品交易、完全超前的“社会主义实践”。

2  cat’s horn  猫的角    指不存在的东西 cat horns refers to something nonexistent

http://www.dailynk.com/english/read.php?cataId=nk03200&num=2316

It is commonly held in North Korea that “There is everything in the Jangmadang except for the horns of cats.”

在朝鲜的自由市场，除了猫的角，什么都能买到。 Jangmadang即为：自由市场。

http://able2know.org/topic/136653-1

同样的词组还有  hen’s teech 母鸡的牙齿 E.g. something very rare or nonexistent is “as common as hen’s teeth”

3 the wrong Un  口语中un指 人，事物  此处亦指金正银（Kim Jong Un）