Don’t rush it
切莫仓促行事

Aug 21st 2008
From The Economist print edition

Zimbabwe’s rightful leader should not be bounced into a bad deal
津巴布韦的合法领导人不应受到引诱，盲目妥协

PRESSURE is mounting on Morgan Tsvangirai, who in a fair world would already be Zimbabwe’s leader, to compromise with the election-usurping Robert Mugabe, in order to forge a unity government to put Zimbabwe out of its misery. But hold on. A bad deal may well be worse than no deal, if it lets Mr Mugabe stay in power, with Mr Tsvangirai’s lot as supplicant partners in a government of bogus unity. Even if he seems to be prolonging Zimbabwe’s agony, Mr Tsvangirai should resist the blandishments of Thabo Mbeki, the South African president, who has been trying to mediate an agreement that would in effect leave Mr Mugabe and his thugs in charge.
若处在一个公平的环境，茨万吉拉伊应该已经成为津巴布韦总统了。目前要求他与篡夺选举结果的穆加贝妥协的压力正急剧增长。但是且慢。达成一个糟糕协议完全有可能比没有达成任何协议更糟糕–穆加贝继续掌权，而茨万吉拉伊则在伪联合政府中扮演没有实权的合作者角色。茨万吉拉伊应该拒绝南非总统姆贝基的引诱，即使这样看起来是他拖延了津巴布韦的冲突。姆贝基正试图斡旋双方达成的协议实际上可以令穆加贝及其党羽得以继续留任。

The fact that negotiations have got under way, even if they have recently stalled, marks progress. The old man has given ground merely by declaring himself ready to share power. Mr Tsvangirai and his Movement for Democratic Change, which is acknowledged by all sides to have won a parliamentary election in March while its leader indisputably won the first round of a presidential poll, have suggested that Mr Mugabe should become a ceremonial president and Mr Tsvangirai an executive prime minister in a transitional period before fresh elections are held. Mr Mugabe seems ready to let the opposition handle the bankrupt country’s finances and even its foreign affairs but insists on controlling the rump of the security forces, which may anyway already be running the country.
虽然谈判最近陷入了僵局，但它的展开就标志着进步。穆加贝仅通过宣布自己愿意分享权力以示让步。茨万吉拉伊和他的”民主变革运动”建议，在新一轮公正选举展开之前，先成立一个过渡政府，由穆加贝象征性担任总统，茨万吉拉伊担任行政总理。事实上各方均承认，”民主变革运动”赢得了此前3月份举行的议会选举，茨万吉拉伊在第一轮总统选举中胜出。穆加贝似乎愿意让对手掌管这个已然破产的国家的金融甚至外交事务，但牢牢掌控着军权，事实上目前正是军队管理着这个国家。

That is where Mr Tsvangirai must remain firm. If he enters a government without acquiring authority over the armed men, he will become an unwitting agent for perpetuating the cruel and venal order that has turned Zimbabwe from an African bread basket into a husk of destitution.
这正是伊万吉拉伊必须立场坚定的地方。如果尚未获得军权就进入政府，他将不知不觉间成为官员贪脏枉法、人民民不聊生的罪魁祸首，正是混乱的秩序令津巴布韦从非洲粮仓沦落至物质匮乏的境地。

In truth, it is devilish hard to judge how much ground it would be wise for Mr Tsvangirai to give, in the hope of gradually gaining rightful power. Once his foot is in the door of government, with the cheers of the people and the backing of foreign governments and aid agencies, he would strive to build and then assert his authority. But Mr Mugabe and his security men, who could end up in the International Criminal Court at The Hague if he bowed out, do not see it that way at all. And Mr Mbeki seems content to leave Mr Mugabe in place, in the hope that age alone will gradually ease him out.
实际上我们基本上无法判断，为了获取合法权力，茨万吉拉伊究竟应该做出多少让步。一旦他踏入政府的大门，在民众的欢呼声和国外政府及援助机构的支援下，他一定会竭力建立并维护自己的政权。但穆加贝及其军队可不这么看，一旦穆加贝被扫地出门，他们很可能被送上海牙国际法庭。此外，姆贝基似乎同意穆加贝留下，他指望年岁的增加会令穆加贝慢慢淡出。

He won’t be there for ever
他不可能永不离任

Nonetheless, horrible as Zimbabwe’s plight is today, time may just be on Mr Tsvangirai’s side. A big factor in his favour is the economy’s accelerating meltdown. With inflation now officially at 11,000,000% a year, the currency is virtually worthless. The latest harvest has been dire; bread is running short; civil servants’ pay is pointless; barter, the black market, subsistence, remittances, charity and foreign aid (if Mr Mugabe lets it in) will soon be how most Zimbabweans survive. Foreign governments, bankers and aid givers should co-ordinate and display an emergency package, then make it plain they will ride to the rescue only if a unity government is transitional, with Mr Mugabe at best in a temporary ceremonial role and his security men, who have bluntly said they would never serve under Mr Tsvangirai’s leadership, removed forthwith.
不过，尽管津巴布韦现状糟糕，时间可能会站在茨万吉拉伊这边。他大大受益于目前该国加速崩溃的经济现状。官方的通货膨胀数字是每年11000000%，货币实际上一文不值。粮食丰收无望，面包开始短缺，公务员工资无从指望。物物交换、黑市、汇款、慈善和国外援助（如果穆加贝允许）将成为大多数津巴布韦人生存的途径。外国政府、银行家和援助者应该互相协调，向外界展示出一个紧急情况下的一揽子救援计划，并且声明，只有在如下情况下，他们才会提供援助：联合政府只是一个过渡政府，穆加贝至多只能在该政府担任象征性职位，立即解职那些声称永不听众茨万吉拉伊领导的军人。

But why should Mr Mugabe co-operate in his own demise? Other dictators, such as North Korea’s Kim Jong-il, remain doggedly in power, sealed off from their pauperised people. Mr Mugabe, sycophant-surrounded and with his own foreign-currency wallet, is short of neither bread nor baubles, and may do the same. Yet his regime is more susceptible to pressure than it seems. Zimbabwe still has a kernel of civil society and free institutions. Nor is it walled off from its neighbours, now hosting millions of sullen exiles. Levy Mwanawasa, president of next-door Zambia, who died this week, sorely wanted Mr Mugabe to go (see article); other African leaders are becoming impatient. The best memorial to the decent Zambian would be for his peers to hasten Mr Mugabe’s removal-and not to cajole Mr Tsvangirai into signing a deal that would leave the tyrant in charge as his country disintegrates.
但是穆加贝有何理由要在其政治生涯的尾声配合呢？别的独裁者，比如朝鲜的金正日，依然牢牢掌握着政权，与他们靠救济度日的国民相隔离。佞人环绕且有海外存款的穆加贝衣食无忧、怡然自得，他很可能做出同样的事来。不过，穆加贝的政权更易受到外界压力的影响。津巴布韦依然拥有公民社会和自由制度的内核。它有数百万国民流亡在外，并没有与其邻国隔绝。邻国赞比亚总统利维·姆瓦纳瓦萨（本周去世）强烈希望穆加贝离职；其它非洲领导人也开始变得不耐烦。津巴布韦正分崩离析，姆瓦纳瓦萨的同僚若能加快穆加贝离职，并且不引诱茨万吉拉伊签署使穆加贝得以留任的协议，就是对其逝去的正派总统的最好纪念。

译者：dgrkl     http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=13634&extra=page%3D1

Only talk tough
只能强硬谈判

Jul 24th 2008
From The Economist print edition

Morgan Tsvangirai is right to talk to Robert Mugabe-about the dictator’s exit
茨万吉拉伊就让穆加贝这位独裁者下课一事进行谈判无可厚非

IT STICKS in the gullet of the large majority of Zimbabwe’s people yearning to see the back of Robert Mugabe that the man who should have displaced him four months ago by virtue of the ballot box has now been persuaded to engage in talks with him, seemingly more as supplicant than rightful successor. But Morgan Tsvangirai, the opposition leader who won the first round of the presidential election in March but was savagely intimidated into abandoning the second round at the end of June, is right to agree to talks with the usurper. The alternative, if Mr Tsvangirai were to dig his toes in and refuse to parley until the incumbent simply bowed out, would be more bloodshed and misery for the aggrieved majority and a still more ferocious clinging to power by Mr Mugabe and his clique. By agreeing to talk, Mr Tsvangirai is at least offering Mr Mugabe a gracious if necessarily gradual exit. And if Mr Mugabe fails to negotiate in good faith, Mr Tsvangirai may be forced to walk away, as Zimbabwe falls ever more deeply into lawlessness, poverty and despair. So he must at least try (see article).
四个月前在津巴布韦大选中获胜、本应取代穆加贝的茨万吉拉伊正被人说服与穆加贝谈判。看样子，这位候选人与其说是合法继任者不如说是祈求者，这是让大部分渴望穆加贝下台的津巴布韦人民所无法忍受的。三月反对党党魁茨万吉拉伊在第一轮总统大选中获胜，但遭到严重恐吓使其放弃六月底的第二轮选举，因此他与篡位者进行谈判是无可厚非的。但是如果茨万吉拉伊固执己见，只有穆加贝下台才与其和谈的话，津巴布韦会发生更多的流血事件，这对于步履维艰的广大人民来讲更是雪上加霜，穆加贝和其派系更不会交权。如果同意谈判，茨万吉拉伊至少可以让穆加贝有风度的淡出政治舞台。如果穆加贝不是真心诚意谈判，那么茨万吉拉伊只能被迫放弃，否则津巴布韦会更加动荡不安、民不聊生。所以无论如何，他都要试一试（见文）。

Mr Mugabe will, of course, seek to bamboozle Mr Tsvangirai, a brave man who in the past has not been the cleverest of negotiators when tussling either with Mr Mugabe’s canny villains or with his own disputatious colleagues in the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). Mr Mugabe, abetted by South Africa’s bafflingly complaisant president, Thabo Mbeki, will try to engineer a government of national unity, with his own people in the driving seat, while co-opting and confusing as many of Mr Tsvangirai’s party as possible. Mr Mugabe’s team take as its model Kenya, where, in an election late last year, the incumbent president almost certainly lost at the polls but managed, after weeks of bloodshed, to stay in power by giving the apparent winner the post of prime minister and a bunch of other less powerful ministries.
当然，穆加贝会蒙蔽茨万吉拉伊。后者很勇敢，但民主改革运动时，无论是与穆加贝精明的团伙或是他自己巧舌雌黄的同事斗智斗勇时，他都不是最睿智的谈判高手。在姆贝基这位逆来顺受的有点令人不解的南非总统的怂恿下，穆加贝会试图策划建立由他的亲信担任要职的国家团结政府，同时强行拉拢和迷惑更多茨万吉拉伊的人。穆加贝派别也想步肯尼亚之后尘。在肯尼亚去年的选举中，民意调查显示，现任总统几乎必败无疑，但经过几周的流血事件之后，他让本可以成为总统的不二人选担任总理，并任命了一些没什么实权的部长，这样才保住了他的总统宝座。

Mr Tsvangirai will be right to resist such a compromise. Instead, he must insist on a strictly transitional arrangement, with ministries allotted in keeping with the results of the parliamentary poll, which even Mr Mugabe’s election officials agree was won by Mr Tsvangirai’s party. A clutch of other key conditions must also be met before the talks can seriously get under way. For a start, the state-sponsored violence, in which more than 100 of Mr Tsvangirai’s people have been murdered and thousands beaten and tortured, must stop; thousands more must be freed from prison; and scores of bogus charges against newly elected members of parliament, MDC officials, and the leader of an MDC splinter party must be dropped. A further host of conditions, repeatedly laid down but wilfully ignored in the run-up to elections by the southern African Development Community, an influential regional group of countries, must be met. Among many other things, the press should be freed. Foreign reporters, including from the BBC, should be let back in. Just as important, foreign aid organisations, banned by Mr Mugabe during the election campaign, should also again be able freely and directly to disburse help. Most crucially, a transitional administration should prepare for a fresh election, monitored by the UN, the EU and the African Union, within a year or so of taking office.
茨万吉拉伊拒绝这样的妥协也是情理之中。但是，他必须坚持严格的过渡安排，职位的分配要与民意调查结果相符，甚至连穆加贝的选举官员也同意反对党赢了。在正式启动谈判前必须要满足一些主要条件：首先，必须停止国家策划的造成100多名反动党人、数千人被打和受虐待的暴力事件；必须要再释放几千名反对党人；必须撤销针对议会新当选议员、MDC官员和MDC小派别领导人的莫须有罪名。同时必须要满足南部非洲发展共同体这一有影响力的国家区域组织大选之前被束之高阁但却故意忽略的一系列条件。最重要的是，国家不能控制媒体，应该允许包括BBC在内的国外记者进入采访。同样重要的是，大选时由穆加贝禁止的国外援助组织也要能不受限的提供直接帮助。最为关键的是，要建立一个过渡政府，为新一轮的大选作准备，过渡政府上任一年期内要受到联合国、欧盟和非盟的监督。

All too starry-eyed?
太不切实际？

Why should Mr Mugabe even consider meeting this array of conditions, when he has so blatantly flouted or rejected them in the past? The answer is that behind the defiance he appears to be under greater pressure than ever before. His economy is reaching a new level of disaster, with inflation now running at a rate of millions per cent a year. The latest harvest has been dismal, bread may soon run out and famine is a real threat. African governments, though many are still pusillanimous, are turning against him. Mr Mbeki still waffles and wobbles, but opinion in his ruling African National Congress is hardening against Mr Mugabe. Just as promisingly, the UN and the African Union are now formally engaged in the negotiations too. The world’s financial institutions are poised to take remedial action, if a decent settlement takes shape. Once Mr Mugabe is locked into proper talks, it may no longer be so easy for him to have his way. And if he cheats and filibusters, Mr Tsvangirai should simply walk out.
既然穆加贝过去已经公然无视或是拒绝答应这些条件，那为什么他现在要考虑是否满足这些条件呢？原因在于，虽然他公然违抗，但他似乎承受着比以往更大的压力：国家经济情况恶化，年通货膨胀率达到百分之数百万；最近的收成不佳，面包也许会很快断挡，饥馑一触即发；许多怯弱胆小的非洲政府也与他作对；姆贝基虽然振振有词、犹豫不决，但是他的执政党非洲国家国会对对穆加贝的态度越来越强硬。联合国和非盟也如约正式加入谈判。如果可以妥善解决，世界金融组织正准备采取补救行动。一旦穆加贝加入正规的谈判，那他再也不可能那么容易随心所欲；但如果他舞弊并从中作梗，那么茨万吉拉伊只能退出。

译者：yyjoy8404   http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=12916&extra=page%3D1

Africa’s shame
非洲之耻

Jul 3rd 2008 | JOHANNESBURG
From The Economist print edition

A Munich moment for the continent’s leaders as President Robert Mugabe is let off the hook, again
罗伯特·穆加贝总统再次摆脱困境，这是非洲国家领导者的灾难。

GATHERING in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh on July 2nd, the leaders of the African Union (AU) had an unprecedented opportunity finally to pull the plug on the disastrous regime of Zimbabwe’s president, Robert Mugabe-or at least cast him into political outer darkness. To fortify themselves they had the world’s condemnation of his farcical re-election on June 27th, which the opposition had to withdraw from due to violence and intimidation, ringing very loudly in their ears. They had the UN Security Council saying ahead of the poll that it could not be free or fair. They had the unprecedented verdict of their own observers, who had said that the result could not “reflect the will of the people”. Even observers from a normally supine regional bloc, the Southern African Development Community (SADC), had said that the election could not be considered “legitimate”.

7月2日，非洲联盟的国家元首和政府首脑们聚集在埃及的旅游胜地沙姆沙伊赫，这本来是一个绝佳的机会，可以终止津巴布韦总统罗伯特·穆加贝领导的灾难性的政权，或者至少把他推向地狱。整个世界都在谴责6月27日举行的那次可笑的改选，因为反对党由于暴力和威胁而不得不放弃选举，但是他们对耳边这些响亮的声音充耳不闻。他们没有理睬选举之前联合国安理会关于选举不会自由公平的声明。他们也没有顾及自己的观察员发表的意见，这些观察员认为，选举结果不能”反映人民的意愿”。甚至连那个一贯消极的区域性集团”南部非洲发展共同体”（SADC)派出的观察员都说，这次选举是”不合法的”。

So what did they do? The least possible. With Mr Mugabe in their midst, the AU leaders did concede that they were “deeply concerned” about the violence. But they responded by merely asking for mediation efforts to continue between Mr Mugabe and the opposition; these are led by South Africa’s president, Thabo Mbeki, and have got nowhere. They also called for a government of national unity, without referring to whether such a government should be led by the man who won the sham runoff vote against no opposition on June 27th, or by Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), who actually won the first round of presidential voting in March. The AU’s response was embraced by Mr Mugabe, which betrays exactly how much notice he is likely to take of any of it. With no penalties on the table for non-compliance, even the gentle suggestions emanating from Sharm el-Sheikh can be happily ignored.

那么他们做了什么？微不足道。因为穆加贝先生是他们中的一员，非盟的领导人们承认他们对暴力事件”深表忧虑”。但是他们的对策仅仅是要求在穆加贝先生和反对党之间继续斡旋。这项工作由南非总统塔博·姆贝基领导，但是迄今毫无进展。他们还呼吁成立一个民族团结政府，但是没有提及这个政府应该由谁来领导，是那个在6月27日举行的没有竞争对手的欺骗性选举中获胜的男人，还是那个实际上在3月份第一轮总统选举中已经获胜的反对党”民主改革运动”（MDC)的领导人摩根·茨万吉拉伊。穆加贝先生对非盟的回应表示欢迎。这清楚的表明他可能接受一些建议。对于他不听话的惩罚并没有被提上日程，即使从沙姆沙伊赫传出了一些温和的意见，也都被愉快的忽略了。

A few of the continent’s leaders did speak up. The vice-president of Botswana declared that the outcome of the election was not legitimate, and that Mr Mugabe and his government should therefore be excluded from AU and SADC meetings until a political solution is found. He was echoing similar words from Raila Odinga, Kenya’s prime minister, whose own victory at the polls was stolen a few months ago. A group of respected African elders, including Nelson Mandela, Desmond Tutu and Kofi Annan, had asked for the AU to provide “leadership, wisdom and moral courage” by stating that the results of the runoff were illegitimate.

一些非洲领导人清楚的表明了看法。博茨瓦纳副总统声称选举结果不合法，因此穆加贝先生和他的政府应该被排除在非盟和SADC的会议之外，直到达成一个政治解决方案。他的讲话得到了肯尼亚总理拉伊拉·奥廷加的赞同，几个月前，奥廷加的选举胜利果实也曾被偷走。一群倍受尊敬的非洲元老，包括纳尔逊·曼德拉、德斯蒙德·图图和科菲·安南在内，呼吁非盟发挥”领导力、智慧和道义勇气”，宣布选举的结果是非法的。

But these pleadings fell on deaf ears; for the AU leaders it was appeasement as usual. Many leaders on the continent are hardly paragons of democracy themselves, and so would never condemn a fellow despot. One of the first to welcome Mr Mugabe to the AU meeting was Omar Bongo, who has ruled Gabon for decades; he quickly endorsed Mr Mugabe’s election “victory”. Others are still susceptible to the appeal of Mr Mugabe’s anti-colonialist rhetoric. His spokesman will have done their cause no harm by saying that Westerners who condemned the election could “go hang a thousand times”.

但是这些反对意见都石沉大海，非盟领导人一如既往充当老好人。许多非洲领导人本身都不是民主的楷模，所以根本不可能去指责一个暴君同志。首先欢迎穆加贝先生参加非盟会议的是统治加蓬数十年的奥马尔·邦戈；他迅速认可了穆加贝先生的选举”胜利”。其他人仍然受到穆加贝先生反殖民主义言论的影响。他的发言人将会在不伤害双方的情况下表明他们的立场，他说，谴责选举的西方人可以去”见鬼1000次”。

Meanwhile in Zimbabwe itself, months of horrific violence meted out to opposition supporters following the first round of the election have left deep scars on the country. Mr Tsvangirai withdrew from the race a few days before the runoff because of the repression and violence, which he says have left at least 86 people dead, thousands injured and arrested, and 200,000 others displaced. With no opposition, Mr Mugabe won 85% of the vote in the runoff, but many were forced to vote for him.

同时，对于津巴布韦来说，在第一轮选举之后持续数月，针对反对党支持者的恐怖的暴力事件给这个国家留下了深深的伤痕。由于镇压和暴力，茨万吉拉伊先生在距离最后一轮选举还有几天的时候放弃了选举，他说，至少有86个人被杀，数千人受伤和被捕，另外还有20万人流亡。由于没有对手，穆加贝先生在最后一轮选举中赢得了85%的投票，但是许多都是被迫投给他的。

The experience of Malcolm (not his real name), a rural teacher from Mashonaland East, a stronghold of Mr Mugabe’s ruling ZANU-PF, was fairly typical. He was also a polling officer, and explains how he was threatened the day before the runoff; like many other voters, he was forced to pretend he was illiterate on voting day so that he could be “assisted” by the police and ruling-party representatives in the voting booth. He recounts how those turned away because their names were not on the voters’ roll begged for hours to be allowed to dip their fingers into ink, fearing retaliation if they could not display the mark proving they had voted. Although it took over a month for Zimbabwe’s electoral commission to announce the results of the first round, which went against Mr Mugabe, it declared Mr Mugabe the winner of the runoff in less than two days.

东马绍纳兰是穆加贝先生领导的”津巴布韦非洲民族联盟-爱国阵线”（ZANU-PF）的根据地，马尔科姆（化名）是这里的一名乡村教师，他的经历具有代表性。他同时还是一名投票管理员，他讲述了在最后一轮投票的前一天是如何受到威胁的；和其他许多投票者一样，他被迫在投票当天装成一个文盲，这样，他就可以得到投票点的警察好执政党的代理人的”帮助”。他详细的讲述了那些名字不在投票者名册上的人是如何苦苦哀求几个小时，才被允许将手指伸进墨水中，因为如果不能留下已经投票的记号的话，他们害怕受到报复。尽管津巴布韦选举委员会花了一个月才公布第一轮投票的结果，当然这个结果不利于穆加贝先生，但是最后一轮选举结束不到两天它就宣布穆加贝先生获胜了。

The MDC’s position appears muddled. Last week Mr Tsvangirai asked for the AU and SADC to help mediate a political solution based on the results of the first round. But on July 1st, Tendai Biti, the MDC’s secretary-general who has been released on bail after being arrested upon his return to Zimbabwe, said that the runoff “totally and completely exterminated any prospects of a negotiated settlement”, and that no discussions with ZANU-PF were happening. The next day, the opposition rejected the idea of a government of national unity, but said that it remains committed to negotiations towards a transitional government, provided the violence and the persecution of MDC leaders and supporters stop, political prisoners are released, militia bases and torture camps are disbanded, and security forces remain neutral.

MDC的立场显得很混乱。上周茨万吉拉伊先生呼吁非盟和SADC在第一轮选举结果的基础上帮助促成一个政治解决方案。但是在7月1日，特恩戴依·比迪说，最后一轮选举”完全终止了任何一个和解的可能”，和ZANU-PF的谈判不会发生。比迪是MDC的秘书长，他在返回津巴布韦的时候被逮捕，最近在被保释。第二天，反对党驳回了组建民族团结政府的提议，但是它说，只要停止暴力活动和对MDC领导人及其支持者的迫害，释放政治犯，解散民兵组织和刑讯机构，安全部队继续保持中立，那么它仍然致力于协商组建一个过渡政府。

Mr Mugabe, for his part, has said that he is willing to talk to anyone, safe in the knowledge that he now does so from a position of strength and with nothing to fear from the appeasing Mr Mbeki. On July 3rd South Africa, China and Russia were expected to defeat proposed UN sanctions targeted at members of Mr Mugabe’s regime. Pressure on him from other sources might yet make his position more uncomfortable. For example, the German company that has supplied Zimbabwe with most of its banknotes for its hyper-inflated economy announced on July 2nd that it is ending its business with the country. In the grip of both a humanitarian catastrophe and an economic crisis, Zimbabwe is once again in limbo.

对穆加贝先生来说，他声称他愿意和任何人会谈，毫无疑问他现在处在强势地位，对和稀泥的姆贝基先生也无所畏惧。7月3日，南非、中国和俄罗斯应该会阻止针对穆加贝先生政权的联合国制裁。但是来自其它地方的压力也许会让他的宝座更不舒服。例如，为了抑制津巴布韦高通胀的经济而注入巨资的德国公司在7月2日宣布，它要结束在这个国家的商业活动。面临着人道主义灾难和经济危机的双重威胁，津巴布韦的未来又悬了。

译者：zidance   http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=12432&extra=page%3D1

After the storm, the stalemate
风雨之后的纠结

Jul 10th 2008 | JOHANNESBURG
From The Economist print edition

A negotiated end of the power struggle looks far off
权力斗争远未结束

THERE were more harsh words for Zimbabwe’s president, Robert Mugabe, this week, as well as more promises of tough action against his regime following his re-election in a sham one-man run-off on June 27th. But, equally, there was also more evidence that the world remains divided-and often bitterly so-on what to do about him. The only person who profits from these divisions is Mr Mugabe himself.

在7月27日那次虚伪的”一人选举”中当选之后，津巴布韦总统罗伯特·穆加贝本周受到了众多尖锐的批评，还有很多人承诺要对他的政权采取强硬的行动。但是与此同时，也有很多证据显示，在对他采取什么行动的问题上，世界上仍然存在分歧，很多时候分歧还不小。只有一个人从这些分歧中受益，那就是穆加贝先生。

The Zimbabwean impasse figured high on the agenda of the G8 gathered in Japan. Prompted mainly by Britain’s prime minister, Gordon Brown, the rich-countries’ club, including Russia, heavily criticised the Zimbabwean election, saying that they would not accept the “legitimacy” of Mr Mugabe’s new government. The G8 promised to take “further steps” against 13 of Mr Mugabe’s inner circle who are responsible for organising most of the violence in the country. Targeted sanctions and an arms embargo were expected to be proposed at the UN Security Council. Some African countries, such as Botswana and Nigeria, also condemned the election. It is unfortunate that Zambia’s president, Levy Mwanawasa, suffered a debilitating stroke last week; he had become one of Mr Mugabe’s most effective critics.

在日本举行的G8会议将解决津巴布韦的僵局放在议事日程的前面。在英国首相戈登·布朗的推动下，这个包括俄罗斯在内的富国俱乐部严厉批评了津巴布韦的选举，声称他们不会承认穆加贝先生的新政府的”合法性”。G8承诺将对穆加贝先生的13名心腹采取”进一步措施”，他们被认为组织了这个国家的大部分暴力活动。预计在联合国安理会上会有一项有针对性的制裁和武器禁运的提议。一些非洲国家，例如博茨瓦纳和尼日利亚，也在质疑选举。不幸的是，赞比亚总统利维·姆瓦纳瓦萨上周遭受了一次打击；他已经成为了穆加贝先生最有力的批评者之一。

But, again, several African countries objected to any further sanctions; South Africa’s president Thabo Mbeki said that sanctions could lead to a civil war in Zimbabwe. And, despite Russia’s apparent show of unity at the G8, neither it nor China could be relied upon to back a strong resolution on sanctions at the UN. It is a familiar split. Instead, these countries insist that Mr Mbeki’s mediation efforts between Mr Mugabe and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) be given more time to succeed-a process that some Western leaders have now lost patience with.

但是同时，几个非洲国家拒绝任何更进一步的制裁；南非总统塔博·姆贝基说，制裁会引发津巴布韦内战。而且，尽管俄罗斯表面上和G8保持一致，但是无论是它还是中国，在联合国都不会坚定支持制裁。这是个常有的分歧。相反，这些国家坚持要求给与更多的时间，使姆贝基先生在穆加贝先生和反对党”民主改革运动党 “（MDC）之间的调解能成功,而现在许多西方国家对此已经失去耐心。

Both sides say that they want to talk. But their positions still appear irreconcilable. The MDC insists that it will not participate in any proper negotiations unless violence stops, political prisoners are released, those who have fled violence are repatriated and humanitarian assistance is allowed to resume. Having lost faith in Mr Mbeki, the MDC also wants a full-time mediator from the African Union. It has rejected the idea of a government of national unity, but advocates a transitional administration based on the results of the first round of voting on March 29th-which it won-leading towards fresh elections. Mr Mugabe, for his part, insists that the opposition recognise his flawed re-election.

两边都宣传他们愿意谈判。但是看起来他们的立场还无法协调。MDC强调，要想它参与谈判，除非停止暴力活动，释放政治犯，接回在暴力事件中逃离的人，重新接受人道主义援助。MDC已经对姆贝基先生失去信心，它希望非盟派出一名全职的仲裁专使。它据绝了建立民族团结政府的提议，但是提倡建立一个过渡政府直到举行新的选举，过渡政府的建立要基于3月27日第一轮选举的结果，而MDC认为自己赢得了第一轮的选举。对穆加贝先生来说，他坚持要反对党承认他赢得了有 “问题”的选举。

A plan floated by Mr Mbeki before the run-off, which would leave Mr Mugabe as a ceremonial head of state and give the opposition executive power, appears to have little chance of success. The South African president, eager to show some progress in his faltering shuttle diplomacy, flew to Harare on July 5th and met Mr Mugabe and Arthur Mutambara, the leader of a small MDC splinter party. This raised some hopes. But the MDC leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, resisting pressure from Mr Mbeki, stood his ground and refused to participate. Mr Mutambara later said that he attended the talks only because he thought Mr Tsvangirai was going to be there as well; Mr Mutambara insists that there will be no deal without the main MDC group.

姆贝基先生在最后一轮选举前实行的计划看上去没有可能成功了，这个计划提出让穆加贝先生担任国家元首，而把行政权交给反对党。这位南非总统，急于展示他在不断的穿梭外交中取得的一些成就。他在7月5日飞到哈拉雷，会见了穆加贝先生和阿瑟·穆塔马拉，后者是MDC的一个小派别的领袖。这带来了一些希望。但是 MDC的领袖莫根·茨万吉拉伊顶住了来自姆贝基先生的压力，坚持自己的立场，拒绝妥协。穆塔马拉先生稍后声称，他参加会谈仅仅是因为他认为茨万吉拉伊先生也将会来这里；穆塔马拉先生坚称，没有MDC的主要派别参与的话，不会达成什么协议。

In the meantime, political violence shows no sign of abating. According to the MDC, at least 20 activists have been killed since the run-off, bringing the total of confirmed deaths since the first round in March to over 100. Dozens of opposition supporters are still missing and 1,500 or so remain behind bars. This week, the body of an MDC driver abducted in Harare last month was finally found, burned and decomposing on a farm about 30km outside the capital. He had been tortured before being shot. Armed militias were also reported to have attacked two camps near Harare where people fleeing the violence had taken refuge after seeking shelter in the South African embassy.

同时，政治暴力没有缓和的迹象。按照MDC的说法，从最后一轮选举以来，至少有20名激进分子被杀，而从3月份第一轮选举以来被确认死亡的人数已经超过了 100。许多反对党支持者失踪，大约1500人还被关在监狱。本周，一名上个月被绑架的MDC司机的尸体在距离首都30km外的一个农场被找到，尸体有火烧的痕迹，已经开始腐烂。在被开枪打死之前，他受到了拷打。有报道说，武装民兵袭击了哈拉雷附近的两个难民营，住在这里的人是为了逃离暴力活动而往南非大使馆寻求避难，并接受他们的庇护。

Mr Mugabe’s ruling ZANU-PF also appears determined to reverse the majority that the opposition won in the National Assembly for the first time since the country’s independence in 1980. Besides results being contested in court, nine lawmakers from Mr Tsvangirai’s camp have been arrested or abducted since the first round of voting. The combined opposition holds 110 seats against ZANU-PF’s 97.

看起来，穆加贝先生领导的执政党ZANU-PF确实在国民大会中失去了多数党地位，这是1980年国家独立以来的第一次。自从第一轮投票以来，随着这个结果在法庭上引起争论，来自茨万吉拉伊先生先生阵营的9名法官被逮捕或者被绑架。反对党获得了110个席位，而ZANU-PF只有97个席位。

Mr Mugabe is unlikely to relent unless under serious, concerted pressure. But, as usual, it is hard to see exactly where that is going to come from. Even now, the wily Zimbabwean liberation hero seems to be outwitting his rivals, mediators and enemies in almost equal measure.

除非多方协调，认真的施加压力，穆加贝先生是不可能软化的。但是，和以前一样，很难清楚的看到压力来自何方。甚至在现在，这位老谋深算的津巴布韦解放英雄以几乎同样的方法，正在欺骗他的对手、仲裁者和敌人。

译者：zidance    http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=12607&extra=page%3D1

How to get him out
如何赶走他

Jun 26th 2008
From The Economist print edition

By forcing the opposition to abandon the election, Robert Mugabe has undermined his position
由于强迫对手放弃选举，罗伯特·穆加贝的地位已经动摇了

IT IS hard to believe that the horrors inflicted by Zimbabwe’s ruler on his own people could get worse. But even in the past week they have. The burning to death of a six-year-old boy because his father is an opposition politician, and the butchering of the young wife of the capital’s new opposition mayor, are part of a growing wave of violence that has persuaded Morgan Tsvangirai, the opposition leader, to withdraw from the presidential run-off that was due on June 27th. He rightly felt that, by standing in the election, he was risking the lives of too many thousands of his supporters.

很难相信津巴布韦统治者会给他的人民带来更大的恐惧，但是在上周，这确实发生了。1个6岁的男孩被烧死，因为他的父亲是一名反对党的政治家；一名年轻的妇女被杀害，因为他的丈夫，同时也是首都的新任市长，是一名反对党党员。这些都是不断增长的暴力浪潮的一部分。这也促使反对党领袖摩根·茨万吉拉伊放弃原定于6月27日举行的最后一轮总统选举。他完全有理由相信，因为参加选举，他的数千名支持者正面临着生命危险。

Yet Robert Mugabe’s crimes are finally coming home to roost. He will claim to be re-elected president, by default. But he has lost one of the big things that have kept him in power to date: the grudging support of Africa. His brutality and fraudulence have become so plain for all to see that neighbours who once defended him are changing their tune. Just as he is poised to declare himself the winner, almost the entire continent-not to mention the rest of the world-has come to believe that he cannot be allowed to stay in office (see article).

然而罗伯特·穆加贝终究会恶贯满盈。由于没有竞争者，他会再次当选总统。但是他将失去迄今为止让他拥有权力的最大助力：非洲国家的勉力支持。他的野蛮和欺诈已经清楚的表露出来，使得那些曾经支持他的邻国改变了态度。就当他准备宣布自己是胜利者的时候，几乎整个非洲大陆，更不用说世界上的其它国家，都已经达成共识，决不允许他掌权。

He is, as a result, weaker; but he and his thugs are determined to hang on. He has the tyrant’s delusion that “only God”, as he puts it, can displace him. So Western and African countries, especially Zimbabwe’s neighbours, must act in concert to get rid of the ogre that has shamed an entire continent.

因此，他更软弱了；但是他和他的手下决定坚持下去。正如他所声称的那样，他有着暴君一样的妄想，”只有上帝”能取代他。所以西方国家和非洲国家，特别是津巴布韦的邻国，必须团结起来，一起铲除这个使整个大陆蒙羞的魔鬼。

How to finish him off
如何将他赶下台

The first and easiest act is to refuse to recognise any administration led by Mr Mugabe. The European Union, the United States and much of the rich world will ostracise him. Now is the time for Africa, especially the influential regional club of 14 countries known as the Southern African Development Community (SADC), to follow suit. A swelling chorus of other African leaders has condemned the election as unfair. Even South Africa, whose spineless president, Thabo Mbeki, is still refusing to criticise Mr Mugabe outright, has begun to turn against him. Its likely next president, Jacob Zuma, is increasingly exasperated. Its trade unions have called for a blockade of Zimbabwe, symbolic at first but perhaps a harbinger of pressure to come. Nelson Mandela, South Africa’s beacon of decency, in London this week to celebrate his 90th birthday, spoke out against the “tragic failure of leadership in our neighbouring Zimbabwe”.

首先要做的，就是拒绝承认任何一个由穆加贝先生领导的政府，这也是最容易做到的。欧盟、美国和其它的一些发达国家将会排斥他。非洲国家已经到了统一立场的时候了，特别是”南非共同体”（SADC）这个由14个国家组成的具有影响力的区域性组织必须统一思想。已经有越来越多的非洲领导人谴责选举不公正。甚至连南非都开始反对他了，南非总统塔博·姆贝基是个软弱的家伙，他一直拒绝直率的批评穆加贝先生。最有希望当选南非下任总统的雅各布·祖玛对此越来越愤怒。南非工会已经呼吁对津巴布韦进行封锁，开始只是象征性的，但是也许是施加更大压力的前兆。南非的道德楷模纳尔逊·曼德拉本周在伦敦度过了他90岁的生日，他再次公开宣称”我们的邻国津巴布韦有一个悲惨的失败的领导者”。

South Africa remains the key. Its leaders have long had the power to bring Mr Mugabe to his knees, just as their white predecessors squeezed the life out of Rhodesia’s white-supremacist leader, Ian Smith, three decades ago, letting Mr Mugabe take over when Rhodesia became Zimbabwe. Mr Mbeki will argue that economic strangulation would hurt the hapless Zimbabwean masses more than the pampered elite around Mr Mugabe. In the short run, he is right. Humanitarian aid must continue to flow into Zimbabwe, though Mr Mugabe has made it hard-often impossible-for charitable outfits to ensure that their largesse goes directly to the right poor people. But South Africa, along with other countries in the SADC, should certainly join in imposing the targeted sanctions already enforced by the EU, the Americans and other governments against Mr Mugabe and 130-odd of his closest comrades, who are banned from visiting the penalising countries and have had their assets there frozen. Depriving Mr Mugabe’s cronies of trips to a decent country that works could have a salutary effect.

南非仍然是关键。长久以来，它的领导者们都有使穆加贝先生下台的能力，就像30年前，他们的白人先辈将罗德西亚推崇白人至上的领导者伊恩·史密斯赶下台，并在罗德西亚更名为津巴布韦后扶植穆加贝先生上台。姆贝基先生会争论说，经济制裁对可怜的津巴布韦人民造成的伤害，要远大于给穆加贝先生周围那些脑满肥肠的精英们带来的伤害。从短期来看，他是对的。应该继续向津巴布韦提供人道主义援助，但是由于慈善组织要确保他们的捐助确实送到真正的穷人手中，因此在穆加贝先生的阻挠下，这显得有些困难，多数情况下，甚至根本不可能。但是南非和 SADC的其它国家应该切实加入到制裁行动中来，这次制裁是由欧盟、美国和其它国家发起的，针对的是穆加贝先生和他的130多名亲信，他们被禁止进入这些国家，他们的资产也被冻结。禁止穆加贝先生的手下到别的国家访问会带来很好的效果。

The African Union (AU), which embraces all 53 of Africa’s countries, should also be far more robustly involved. Unlike the SADC, which is often paralysed by its search for consensus, the AU’s rules provide for decisions, specifically including the imposition of sanctions on errant members, to be taken by a two-thirds majority. The union is holding its annual summit next week, in Egypt. It should call on its members not to recognise Mr Mugabe as president or his party as the government.

包括所有53个非洲国家在内的非盟应该更深的介入此事。不同于经常为了达成一致协议而无所作为的SADC，非盟的规则有利于形成决议，它明确规定，只要 2/3的多数成员同意，就可以对出了问题的成员国进行强制性的制裁。非盟下周将在埃及举行年会。它应该呼吁其成员国不承认穆加贝先生的总统地位和他的政党领导的政府。

The United Nations, too, must be ready to help. South Africa has been disgracefully blocking discussion of Zimbabwe in the 15-strong Security Council, of which it is a current member (see article). But this week it was shamed into signing a unanimous statement deploring the Zimbabwean government’s violence. There have been calls for the UN to send peacekeepers and to oversee fresh elections: a nice idea that will not come to pass any time soon. At present, no such resolution in the Security Council would get the necessary support, especially from Russia and China (not to mention South Africa). Moreover, while the loss of life in such blighted places as Sudan’s Darfur province and Somalia is still many times higher than in Zimbabwe, the UN has proved unable to send anything like an adequate force to those places; getting the Security Council, and in particular China, to take action over Darfur was like pulling teeth. Yet there is every reason to start campaigning for the UN to take up the cause of Zimbabwe too. It should certainly help to manage a fresh election.

联合国也应该准备提供帮助。作为当前联合国安理会15个成员国中的一个，南非做出了一件不光彩的事情，它阻止了关于津巴布韦问题的讨论。但是本周，它羞愧的在一份一致同意谴责津巴布韦政府暴力行为的声明上签字。有人呼吁联合国派出维和部队，并且监督重新选举：这是个好主意，但是近期不可能实现。目前，这样的决议在联合国安理会得不到足够的支持，特别是来自俄罗斯和中国的支持（更不要说南非了）。而且，目前在苏丹达尔富尔和索马里死亡的人数仍然是津巴布韦的好几倍，而联合国已经没有能力向那些地区提供任何帮助，例如一支充足的部队；希望安理会，特别是中国在达尔富尔采取行动就像拔牙一样。然而我们有理由为了联合国也关注津巴布韦问题而努力。这无疑有助于重新进行一次公正的选举。

Why not send in the troops?
为什么不派遣部队？

Some romantic spirits ask why Mr Mugabe cannot be ousted by force-by Western powers, if not the UN. It would be glorious if he were removed by any method at all. But it remains unthinkable for such an action to be taken without the co-operation-logistical, among other things-of the region’s leaders. Persuading them to collaborate in isolating Mr Mugabe is hard enough. Deploying an international force should not be ruled out in the future, especially if the violence spreads. But other methods, with Africans to the fore, must be tried first.

一些不切实际的人问，为什么不能让西方国家或者联合国使用武力迫使穆加贝先生下台。无论用什么办法，如果他能下台，无疑是一件令人愉快的事情。但是不谈其它的，光从逻辑上讲，没有这个区域其它国家的领导者合作，很难想象会有这样的事情发生。要说服他们孤立穆加贝先生相当困难。不排除将来会派驻国际部队，尤其是当暴力蔓延的时候。但是，为了非洲人民，应该首先考虑其它的办法。

In any event, the rich world should spell out a generous and co-ordinated recovery plan to be acted on as soon as Mr Mugabe has gone and proper elections held that would presumably bring Mr Tsvangirai to power. Zimbabwe needs at least $10 billion to put it on the path to recovery. Yet it is a resource-rich country with a core of well-educated people, millions of whom have fled abroad and must be wooed back home. Mr Mugabe may cling to power for a while, but his grip is weaker. Zimbabwe needs help from the West. But most of all it needs its African neighbours to tell the tyrant unambiguously to go-and to snuff him out if he refuses. It can be done.

无论如何，一旦穆加贝先生下台，进行真正的选举的话，茨万吉拉伊先生可能会掌握政权。此时，发达国家应该提出一个慷慨而协调的复苏计划以供实施。津巴布韦要走上正轨至少需要100亿美元。这个国家资源丰富，但是关键还是要有受到良好教育的人民，现在他们中有数百万流亡海外，必须让他们回国。穆加贝先生也许会暂时掌握权力，但是他的控制力越来越弱。津巴布韦需要来自西方的帮助。但是现在最重要的，是它的非洲邻国明确声明，暴君必须下台，否则就消灭他。这是完全可以做到的。

译者：zidance   http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=12371&extra=page%3D1