Asia’s navies
亚洲海军
Into the wide blue yonder
迈向蓝海
Jun 5th 2008 | SINGAPORE
From The Economist print edition
2008年6月5日 新加坡
《经济学人》印刷版
Asia’s main powers are building up their navies. Is this the start of an arms race?
亚洲大国的海军建设如火如荼。这是一场军备竞赛的开始吗？
IN THE 15th century China possessed a mighty navy of “treasure fleets”. They sailed as far as Africa and the Persian Gulf, spreading China’s economic and political influence across several continents. Had this naval expansion continued, some scholars say, China could have dominated the world. But successive emperors turned the nation inwards on itself, seafaring was banned and the country’s great shipyards were closed. In Asia as elsewhere, it is America that rules the waves—its naval might is still needed, for example, to help defend the Malacca Strait, route for much of the region’s oil and other trade.
在15世纪，中国海 军非常强大，它有一支“寻宝舰队”，这个舰队的航迹远至非洲和波斯湾，把中国的政治和经济影响撒播到好几片大陆。有些学者说，如果中国海军持续膨胀，那么 中国早就称霸世界了。但是继任的皇帝却闭关锁国，取缔航海事业，关闭宏伟的船坞。与世界其他地方一样，在亚洲，美国同样是弄潮儿，人们需要它的海军威力， 比如说，帮助防守本地区石油及其他贸易的必经之路——马六甲海峡。
Today a resurgent, confident and globalising China is rebuilding its naval strength. Like India, its rising Asian rival, it already has an impressive army. But both countries are finding that rapid economic growth is providing the money to realise long-cherished dreams of building ocean-going “blue-water” navies that can project power far from their home shores.
今天，复兴的，自信的，在全球都有影响力的中国正在重建其海军力量，就像其崛起的对手印度已经有一支令人刮目相看的军队。两国都发现快速的经济增长使得他们有钱来实现建设“蓝水”海军这个期待已久的梦想，从而可以布国威于四方。
In the past two years China’s navy has acquired new destroyers, frigates and submarines, some home-built, some (including its most advanced kit) Russian. A recent study by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) concluded that China was also close to beginning the production of aircraft-carriers, which would give it the ability to project airpower over great distances. China has long wanted to create a force capable of thwarting the intervention of America’s Pacific fleet in any war over Taiwan. But it is also increasingly keen to protect its supplies of fuel and raw materials from threats such as piracy and terrorism.
在过去的两年，中国海军已经获得新式的驱逐舰，护卫舰和潜艇，其中一些是本国建造的，另一些（包 括其最先进的战舰）是从俄罗斯购买的。最近伦敦国际战略研究所的研究作出结论，认为中国即将开始建造航空母舰，这会使中国获得大片区域制空权的能力。中国 早就希望打造可以在任何牵涉到台湾的战争中阻断美国太平洋舰队的力量，它同时越来越迫切的希望保护其石油和原材料供应免受海盗和恐怖主义的威胁。
America has particular worries about a naval base China is building on Hainan island, from where its vessels will have easy access to South-East Asia’s shipping lanes—most importantly the Malacca Strait. The Indians are afraid that China’s reason for building ports in Myanmar, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, and conducting naval exercises with Pakistan, is to extend its dominance into the Indian Ocean. Thousands of Chinese-flagged merchant ships now cross the ocean each year, giving China plenty of justification for increasing its naval presence. India, in turn, is pushing into the South China Sea, and seeking port facilities in Vietnam.
美国尤其担心中国正在海南岛上建设的海军基地，军舰从这里出发可以很快到达东南亚的航道——最 重要的是马六甲海峡。印度人担心中国为缅甸，巴基斯坦和斯里兰卡建造港口的目的，它与巴基斯坦开展海军演习，印度人害怕中国将统治扩展至印度洋。每年有几 千艘中国商船传过印度洋，所以中国有充分的理由增强其在本地区的海军存在。印度则把手伸向南海，他正在越南寻找港口设施。
India shares China’s concern that, as trade volumes and energy consumption soar, its security is vulnerable to any disruption of sea traffic. The flagships of its new blue-water navy will be three aircraft-carriers—the same number as Britain. The first of two Indian-built carriers is now under construction, with a launch date of 2010. A third, bought second-hand from Russia, is suffering delays and disputes over its refitting.
印度同中国一样担忧当贸易量与石油消费飙升时，国家安全面对海上交通中断非常脆 弱。其蓝水海军的旗舰将是三艘航空母舰，与英国相当，其中两艘由印度本国生产，第一艘目前正在建造过程中，预计将于2010年下水。第三艘是从俄罗斯购买 的二手潜艇，目前就其改装产生了分歧，因此交易被推迟了。
Tim Huxley of the IISS says that with so much attention focused on China and India, the naval expansion of other Asian countries is often overlooked. Yet several, especially South Korea, are also building long-range naval capabilities. Besides new submarines and destroyers, the South Koreans, like the Japanese, are commissioning helicopter-carriers.
伦敦国际战略研究所的Tim Huxley 说，人们过于关注中国与印度，而其他国家的海军扩张经常被忽视。一些国家，尤其是韩国也在打造海军远程作战的能力。除了新型潜艇与驱逐舰，韩国也像日本一样部署了直升机母舰。
Is this an arms race? As Asia’s defence ministers and military chiefs gathered in Singapore last weekend for their main annual summit, the Shangri-La Dialogue (organised by the IISS), the conclusion of most analysts seemed to be: not yet. A classic arms race, says Mr Huxley, consists of two main countries that have one dominating dispute. Asia is different. Instead, it has the makings of a pair of opposing alliances. A “quad” group (India, America, Australia and Japan) plus Singapore now conduct naval manoeuvres together. So do China and Pakistan. But China and India seem keen to avoid provoking each other. Indeed, they are seeking to build good relations between their navies.
这 是一场军备竞赛吗？当上周末，亚洲的国防部长和军方将领齐聚新加坡，参加每年一度的重要峰会——香格里拉对话（由伦敦国际战略研究所组织）时，看起来大部 分分析家的结论是：还未开始。Huxley说，典型的军备竞赛包括两个主要的国家和一个主导的争议。亚洲并不是这样，它有可能发展出两个敌对同盟——“四 国”组织（印，美，澳，日）加上新加坡，他们正在举行联合海军演习。另外一个则是中国加巴基斯坦。但是中国和印度看起来都渴望不要激怒对方。事实上，中印 正努力在两国海军间构建良好的关系。
Military chiefs at the summit insisted they were not seeking an arms race and gave various justifications for all their new warships. Rather implausibly, China and others insisted they were mainly to ward off pirates and terrorists. South Korea’s defence minister, Lee Sang-hee, said North Korea’s navy threatened its maritime supply lines. As if to prove him right, on May 30th the North test-fired three ship-to-ship missiles in the Yellow Sea.
峰会上的军方将领坚称他们不寻求军备竞赛，也不为获得新军舰寻找众多理由。中国和其 它一些国家坚持说他们主要是为了打击海盗和恐怖分子，这让人难以相信。韩国国防部长李相熹则说朝鲜海军威胁到了韩国海上供应线。就好象为了证明确有此事， 朝鲜5月30号在黄海试发了三枚舰对舰导弹。
Disaster relief is also commonly cited as a reason to have a bigger navy. Within days of Myanmar’s cyclone, three existing blue-water navies—those of America, France and Britain—had ships off the country’s coast, laden with supplies (see article). South Korea’s and Japan’s new helicopter carriers could also one day be useful for moving troops in United Nations peacekeeping operations.
灾难应对也作为拥有更强的海军的理由而被常常引用。在缅甸风在发生几天后，三个现存的拥有蓝海海军的国家——美国，英国，法国把载满物资的军舰开到了缅甸海岸。韩国和日本的直升机母舰也可以为联合国维和行动运送部队而在一天内部署到位。
So there are plenty of ways for Asian powers to use their navies co-operatively. Equally, plenty of disputes might more easily escalate into war if the countries concerned had the naval strength to wage it. The potentially oil-rich Spratly and Paracel Islands, for example, are claimed in whole or part by six countries. In 1988 more than 70 Vietnamese sailors died in a naval battle with China in the Spratlys. Dozens of Koreans died in battles over a disputed sea border in 1999 and 2002.
所以亚洲国加的海军协作大有用武之地。相同的，如果亚洲国家有海军力量为后盾，大量的冲突也更容易升级为战争。比方说，六 个国家都声称对潜在的富含石油的帕拉塞尔群岛（译者注:西方国家对我国西沙群岛的称呼）部分或全部的拥有主权。在1988年，超过70名越南水手在与中国 争夺岛礁的海上战斗中死亡。在1999年和2002年几十个韩国人死于在韩朝海上争议地区爆发的冲突。
Even without any ill intent, accidents will happen at sea. France’s defence minister, Hervé Morin, worries about all the new submarines that will soon be lurking in the region’s shallow and crowded shipping lanes. If one went missing, or suffered a collision, there is a danger of this being misconstrued as hostile action. He argues that to prevent minor incidents escalating in this way, Asian countries need to invest a lot more time in discussions of regional security and do more to replace mutual suspicion with co-operation and confidence-building. If not, Asia’s cautious naval build-up could indeed mutate into a classic, old-fashioned arms race.
即使没有恶意，这片海域也可能发生意外事件。法国国防部长Hervé Morin担心新型潜艇会很快塞满航道，给这个地区蒙上一层阴影。如果有一方擦枪走火，或是遭遇冲突，就有可能被误解为敌对行动。他认为为了防止小型事件 按此发展，亚洲国家需要花更多时间在地区安全方面展开对话，采取更多行动用合作互信取代相互猜疑。如果不这样，亚洲谨慎的海军建设真有可能发展成典型的老 式的军备竞赛。
译者：jason http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=11916&extra=page%3D1