[2009.05.07] Europe’s economies 崭新的权势等级

Europe’s economies
欧洲各经济体

A new pecking order
崭新的权势等级

May 7th 2009
From The Economist print edition

There has been a change in Europe’s balance of economic power; but don’t expect it to last for long
欧洲的经济力量均势发生了改变；但不要期望它能持久

AFP


FOR years leaders in continental Europe have been told by the Americans, the British and even this newspaper that their economies are sclerotic, overregulated and too state-dominated, and that to prosper in true Anglo-Saxon style they need a dose of free-market reform. But the global economic meltdown has given them the satisfying triple whammy of exposing the risks in deregulation, giving the state a more important role and (best of all) laying low les Anglo-Saxons.

多年来美国人、英国人、甚至本刊都一直告诫欧洲大陆国家的领导人们说他们国家的经济僵化、监管过度、过于由政府主导，如果想要真正地以盎格鲁-撒克逊经济模式繁荣的话就需要一系列的自由市场改革。然而，全球经济衰退给了他们让人飘飘然的三重魔咒——揭露国家减少干预经济的风险、让政府发挥更大的作用、以及（最棒的）贬低盎格鲁-撒克逊经济模式支持者。

At the April G20 summit in London, France’s Nicolas Sarkozy and Germany’s Angela Merkel stood shoulder-to-shoulder to insist pointedly that this recession was not of their making. Ms Merkel has never been a particular fan of Wall Street. But the rhetorical lead has been grabbed by Mr Sarkozy. The man who once wanted to make Paris more like London now declares laissez-faire a broken system. Jean-Baptiste Colbert once again reigns in Paris. Rather than challenge dirigisme, the British and Americans are busy following it: Gordon Brown is ushering in new financial rules and higher taxes, and Barack Obama is suggesting that America could copy some things from France, to the consternation of his more conservative countrymen. Indeed, a new European pecking order has emerged, with statist France on top, corporatist Germany in the middle and poor old liberal Britain floored.

在伦敦举行的20国峰会上，法国总统萨科奇和德国总理默克尔并肩站在一起，着力坚持经济衰退不是他（她）们国家的过错。默克尔女士从来都对华尔街没有特别的好感。但是在措辞上占得先机的却是萨科奇。这位曾经想要把巴黎变得更像伦敦的家伙现在宣布放任自由主义是失败的体制。让-巴普蒂斯特•柯尔伯（法国国王路易十四的财政大臣。对内信奉国家对经济的全面干预和掌控，对外奉行重商主义。译者注）再次统治了巴黎。英国人和美国人不但不挑战政府干预经济主义，更忙着循其道而为之：布朗首相宣布了新的金融规则并调高税率，而奥巴马总统更是建议美国可以在某些方面借鉴法国的经验，这让他更为保守的同胞们惊诧不已。的确，一个崭新的欧洲权势等级已经出现，宣扬国家统制经济论的法国居首，统合主义者的德国居中，可怜的老牌自由主义者英国垫底。

A cockpit of competing capitalisms
资本主义不同流派相互竞争的斗鸡场

It is easy to dismiss this as political opportunism. But behind it sits a big debate not only about the direction of the European Union, the world’s biggest economic unit, but also about what sort of economy works best in the modern world. Thirty years after Thatcherism began to work its cruel magic in Britain (see article), continental Europe still tends to favour a larger state, higher taxes, heavier regulation of product and labour markets and a more generous social safety-net than freer-market sorts like the Iron Lady would tolerate. So what is the evidence for the continental model being better?

将其驳斥为政治投机主义自然易如反掌。但是它背后却隐藏着一场大论战。这场论战不光是关于欧盟这一世界上最大的经济体该往何处去的问题，更是关于现代世界中哪种类型的经济运行得最好这一问题。三十年前，撒切尔主义开始在英国体现出它残酷的魔力（见文章），三十年后欧洲大陆各国仍然钟情于大政府、高税收、对产品和劳动力市场的严格监管和更加慷慨的社会保险网，而这些都是像铁娘子这样的自由市场主义者所无法忍受的。那么有什么证据能够表明欧洲大陆国家的模式更好呢？

The continental countries certainly have not escaped the recession: France may be doing a bit better than the world’s other big rich economies this year, but Germany, dragged down by its exporting industries, is doing significantly worse. Yet Mr Obama is right to admit that in some ways continental Europe has coped well. Tough job-protection laws have slowed the rise in unemployment. Generous welfare states have protected those who are always the first to suffer in a downturn from an immediate sharp drop in their incomes and acted as part of the “automatic stabilisers” that expand budget deficits when consumer spending shrinks. In Britain, and to an even greater extent in America, people have felt more exposed.

欧洲大陆国家当然也逃不过经济衰退：法国经济今年的表现也许比世界其他各大富裕经济体稍好，但是德国由于受到其各出口产业的拖累，经济表现明显要差很多。不过奥巴马承认欧洲大陆各国在某些方面表现得更好并没有错。严格的工作保障法律减缓了失业率的攀升。慷慨的福利国家制度保护了那些总是在经济衰退中最先受到收入即刻猛降之打击的人群，并且部分发挥了当居民消费萎缩时扩大预算赤字的“自动稳定器”的作用。在英国，以及更大程度上在美国，人们感到自己面对经济衰退时的遮蔽更少。

The downturn has also confirmed that the continental model has some strengths. France has a comparatively efficient public sector, thanks in part to years of investment in better roads, more high-speed trains, nuclear energy and even the restoration of old cathedrals (see article). Nor is it just a matter of pumping in ever more taxpayers’ cash. By any measure France’s health system delivers better value for money than America’s costlier one. Germany has not just looked after its public finances more prudently than others; its export-driven model has forced its companies to hold down costs, making them competitive not only in Europe but also globally. By design as well as luck, much of continental Europe avoided the debt-fuelled housing bubbles that popped spectacularly in Britain and America (though Spain did not, see article).

经济衰退也确认欧洲大陆国家的模式具有更多的优点。法国的公共部分较其他国家更加高效，这部分得益于多年来在更好的道路、更多的高速铁路、核能、甚至修复年久的大教堂上的投资（见文章）。这也不光是注入更多纳税人的金钱的问题。以任何标准衡量，法国的医疗体系都比美国更昂贵的医疗体系性价比更高。德国不仅比其他各国更谨慎地管理公共财政；德国的出口推动经济的模式迫使该国企业降低成本，从而不光在欧洲更在全球范围内具有竞争力。既是源自设计，也是运气使然，大多数欧洲大陆国家都避免了在英美轰然破灭的由债务导致的房地产泡沫（尽管西班牙是个例外，见文章）。

But will it last? The strengths that have made parts of continental Europe relatively resilient in recession could quickly emerge as weaknesses in a recovery. For there is a price to pay for more security and greater job protection: a slowness to adjust and innovate that means, in the long run, less growth. The rules against firing that stave off sharp rises in unemployment may mean that fewer jobs are created in new industries. Those generous welfare states that preserve people’s incomes tend to blunt incentives to take new work. That large state, which helps to sustain demand in hard times, becomes a drag on dynamic new firms when growth resumes. The latest forecasts are that the United States and Britain could rebound from recession faster than most of continental Europe.

但是这能否持久呢？这些使得部分欧洲大陆国家在经济衰退中相对坚韧的制度优点在一场经济复苏中可能很快成为弱点。这是因为获得更大的经济安全和更强的就业保护就得付出代价：调整和创新缓慢，在长远看来这意味着更加微弱的增长。那些反对裁员的规则尽管避免了失业率的陡升，却可能意味着在新产业中产生的工作机会较少。那些慷慨的福利国家尽管保持了人们的收入水平，却也扼杀了寻找新工作的动机。大政府虽然在经济困难的时候能够帮助维持需求，在经济重新开始增长的时候却拖累了充满活力的新企业。最新的预计表明美国和英国可能比大多数欧洲大陆国家更快地从经济衰退中复苏。

Individual countries have specific failings of their own. Even if it did everything else right, Germany’s overreliance on exports at the expense of consumer spending has proved a grave weakness in a downturn (see article); its banks also look weak. The rate of youth unemployment in France is over 20% and it can be twice as high in the notorious banlieues where Muslim populations are concentrated. Italy and Spain have seen sharp rises in unit labour costs and their labour-productivity growth has stalled or gone into reverse. It may not be long before the fickle Mr Sarkozy is re-reading his Adam Smith.

不同国家都有自身特定的不足。即便其他各方面都无可挑剔，德国牺牲居民消费换来的对于出口的过度依赖在经济衰退中被证明是一个严重的弱点。（见文章）；德国各家银行看起来也很虚弱。法国的青年失业率超过20%，而在臭名昭著的穆斯林人口聚居的“市郊地区”这一数字更可能翻番。意大利和西班牙的单位劳动力成本显著上升而劳动生产率增长却停滞不前甚至出现倒退。也许不久之后变幻无常的萨科奇就会重读亚当•斯密的著作了。

Not what you aim for, but how you do it
不是你的目标是什么，而是你如何实现目标

If there is to be an argument about which model is best, then this newspaper stands firmly on the side of the liberal Anglo-Saxon model—not least because it leaves more power in the hands of individuals rather than the state. But the truth is that the governments on both sides of the intellectual divide could go a long way to making their models work better, without changing their underlying beliefs.

如果非要就哪种模式最好做一番争论的话，那么本刊坚定地站在自由主义的盎格鲁-萨克逊模式一边——尤其是因为这一模式将更多的权力交到个人而不是国家手中。然而事实是居于这一理性分歧两边的政府都有在不改变其根本性信念的情况下长足地改善他们各自模式的空间。

On the continental side, there is nothing especially socially cohesive about labour laws that favour insiders over outsiders, or rules that make the costs of starting a business excessive. Even Colbert might admit that Europe’s tax burdens are too onerous today, particularly since they are likely to have to rise in the future to meet the looming cost of the continent’s rapidly ageing populations.

在欧洲大陆这边，无论是那些偏袒内部人员而排斥外来人员的劳动法，还是那些使得开办企业面临过高成本的法规，都缺乏特别具有社会凝聚力的成分。甚至柯尔伯都可能承认今天欧洲的纳税负担过于繁重，尤其是当未来可能进一步提高税率来满足欧洲大陆迅速老化的人口所带来的迫在眉睫的开销。

For the liberals, even if the cycle swings back in their direction, the financial crisis and the recession have shown up defects in the way they too implemented their model. Getting regulation right matters as much as freeing up markets; an efficient public sector may count as much as an efficient private one; public investment in transport, schools and health care, done well, can pay dividends. The pecking order may change, but pragmatism and efficiency will always count.

对于自由主义者来说，即便经济周期回到有利于他们的方向，金融危机和经济衰退也已经揭露了在他们执行经济模式的方法中存在的缺陷。纠正监管体系跟放松对市场的监管一样重要；一个高效的公共部门跟一个高效的私人部门一样重要；交通、学校和医疗方面的公共投资如果做得好的话就能带来收益。权势等级或许会改变，但是实用主义和效率永远都占有重要的地位。

译者：premiermao     http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=19071&extra=page%3D1