[2009.02.12]Mirror, mirror on the wall 魔镜魔镜告诉我

Taiwan’s economy
台湾经济

Mirror, mirror on the wall
魔镜魔镜告诉我

Feb 12th 2009 | TAIPEI
From The Economist print edition

The ugliest economy of them all?

台湾经济最糟糕？

WHICH economy has been hit hardest by the global slump? In its back pages and on its website The Economist tracks 55 countries each week. Based on industrial production, Taiwan has suffered much the biggest shock. Output fell by 32% in the 12 months to December; in the fourth quarter it plunged at an annual rate of 62%. GDP figures, due on February 18th, will be grim.

哪个经济体在全球经济衰退中中招最深？《经济学人》每周在杂志的尾页及其网站上都会追踪报道55个国家的状况。按照工业产量计算，台湾遭受的冲击最大。一至十二月份台湾产出下降了32%，第四季度的年度出产率骤降62%。定于2月18日公布的GDP数字将会令人沮丧。

Taiwan is one of the world’s most export-dependent economies, making many high-tech gadgets for Western consumers, so it has been battered by the slump in global demand. Exports plunged by a record 44% in the year to January. The slide in exports has been exacerbated by a drying up of trade credit. This partly explains why imports also fell by 57% over the period. Exports may therefore partly recover as credit improves. But Taiwan’s competitiveness has been eroded by its relatively strong currency. The New Taiwan dollar has appreciated by more than 40% against the South Korean won since the start of 2008.

台湾是世界上最依赖出口的经济体之一，主要为西方消费者生产高科技元件，因此在世界需求锐减时损失惨重。截止一月份，台湾出口暴跌了创记录的44%。而贸易信贷的枯竭对于下滑的出口无异于雪上加霜。这点部分解释了进口在过去一段时间下滑57%的原因。如果信贷有所改善，出口就有可能得到部分恢复。但台湾的竞争力已经因其坚挺的货币而受到侵蚀。自2008年初，新台币对韩元的汇率上涨了40%还多。

Exports to China have declined by 59% over the past year, twice as fast as exports to America. Sales to China (over one-quarter of the total) consist largely of electronic components, and have been hit by massive Chinese destocking. The island’s electronics industry is enduring its worst-ever slump. Cheng Cheng-mount, a Taipei-based economist with Citibank, points out that Taiwan’s mainstay exports, such as flat-screen monitors and semiconductors, were in oversupply even before the global financial crisis. Now, he estimates, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s biggest contract chipmaker, is running at around 35% of capacity.

台湾对中国大陆的出口去年下降了59%，这个数字是对美出口下滑率的两倍。出口到中国大陆的产品（占总出口的四分之一还多）大部分是电子元件，因大陆企业紧缩库存而受到很大冲击。台湾得电子产业正在经历有史以来最严重的大萧条。花旗银行在台北的经济学家郑贞茂指出，台湾出口的主要产品如纯屏显示器和半导体甚至在全球金融危机发生前就供应过度。他估计说，世界最大的集成电路制造商台积公司现在的生产量只能达到其最大产能的35%左右。

Falling exports have, in turn, squeezed domestic spending. Unemployment rose to a six-year high of 5% in December, and the true picture may be far bleaker. Taiwanese companies tend to wait until after the lunar new year holiday before swinging the axe. Average wages have also fallen by 5% in real terms over the past year. Many companies are ordering employees to take unpaid leave. The volume of retail sales slumped by 11% in the year to December.

出口下滑反过来压制了台湾岛内的消费。12月份的失业率升至5%，为6年来的新高，现实情况可能更加黯淡无光。台湾的企业打算等农历新年的假期过完后再挥动手中的斧头。扣除物价因素，在去年一年工资平均下降了5%。许多公司让员工停薪留职。去年一至十二月份，零售业总额下跌了11%。

Even before the financial crisis, household spending had seen the weakest growth rate among the East Asian tigers. One reason is that people with the spending power are elsewhere. Over the past eight years, around 1m Taiwanese business executives, who form much of the island’s moneyed managerial class, have moved to China to run factories there. Several economists are now forecasting that Taiwan’s GDP will contract by 3% or more this year, which would be the steepest downturn in Taiwan’s history. By far the gloomiest is CLSA, a broking firm, which is predicting a horrendous 11% drop in 2009.

甚至在金融危机发生前，台湾的住房消费增长率在“东亚四小龙”中就是最低的。一个原因就是有消费能力的人都在别的地方。在过去的八年里，约有一百万台湾企业界人士把工厂搬到了中国大陆，而台湾有钱的管理阶层大部分由他们构成。几位经济学家现在预言，今年台湾的GDP将减少3%甚至更多，这将会是岛内有史以来最严重的经济衰退。迄今为止最悲观的莫过于法国里昂证券，这家经纪公司预计2009年台湾的GDP将暴跌11%。

To prop up the economy, the central bank has cut interest rates six times since September, to 1.5%. The government also plans a fiscal stimulus of infrastructure investment, consumer handouts and tax cuts worth around 3% of GDP in 2009. To boost consumer spending, the government is giving each citizen a voucher worth NT$3,600 ($106). But many economists are sceptical about whether this will produce much new spending. According to Chen Miao, an economist with the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, a similar cash-handout scheme in Japan resulted in only 30% of recipients spending more than they had already planned. Anecdotal evidence so far paints a brighter picture. Department stores and supermarkets reported that sales over the lunar new year holiday were 10-20% higher than in 2008.

为了刺激经济，中央银行自九月份以来已连续6次下调利率，将利率降至1.5%。政府还制定了财政刺激计划，用于投资基础设施建设、发放消费券，以及价值2009年GDP3%的减税计划。为拉动居民消费，政府将向每位公民发放价值3600元新台币（106美元）的消费券。但许多经济学家对于此举能否催生大量新的消费行为表示怀疑。据台湾经济研究所的经济学家陈苗（音）说，在日本也有类似的发放现金的方案，只有30%的受领者花费的多于他们预期的打算。迄今为止，有个别的证据显示未来前景光明。一些商店和超市称在农历新年假期里的销量比2008年上涨了10-20%。

In the longer term, improved ties with China will benefit the economy. For example, says Mr Chen, more direct flights between Taiwan and China should help. If Taiwan-based businessmen came home every quarter instead of every six months, it could boost ailing consumption. For now, however, Taiwan’s frightful economic news is more likely to encourage households to save rather than spend.

从长远看，同大陆改善关系有利于台湾经济发展。例如，陈先生说两岸直航次数的增加应该会起到作用。如果台湾的商人每三个月而不是半年回一趟家，就能够推动疲软的消费。不过，就眼下来说，台湾糟糕的经济消息更可能让居民们小心存钱而不是大把花钱。

译者：harryge    http://www.ecocn.org/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=17196&page=1&extra=